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Signal Bureau What’s happening · what the record shows

Trump

Donald Trump — the 45th and 47th president of the United States.

Coverage of Trump is fading : 90 signals on the latest tracked day, up 8% from its three-week baseline of 83, across 39 domains (down from 50 a week ago). That makes it the #16 most-covered of the 348 concerns we track.

If Trump matters to your work, attention is draining away — the pace of news no longer demands a daily check.

What’s changed

7 of the last 7 tracked days ran above the three-week baseline — a sustained move, not a one-day spike.

What the reporting says

Across 2,104 tracked stories from 326 outlets, reporting on Trump most often describes public statements (229), sanctions or trade (144), military action (116), meetings or visits (89), launches or releases (54), elections (39).

It shows up alongside President Donald Trump (793), Iran (597 — sanctions or trade ×11, ceasefire or deal ×5), United States (492), Oil (371 — ceasefire or deal ×4, sanctions or trade ×2), White House (341 — sanctions or trade ×3), China (290 — sanctions or trade ×16, meetings or visits ×7), Congress (282), Israel (265 — ceasefire or deal ×8, sanctions or trade ×2).

Two steps out: Hormuz (through Iran, 514 shared stories on the weaker link); Middle East (through Iran, 383 shared stories on the weaker link); Russia (through Iran, 319 shared stories on the weaker link); AI (through China, 290 shared stories on the weaker link).

Tracked since Mar 16, with coverage on 102 separate days.

What the crowd is pricing

The odds the crowd puts on “Trump out as President before 2027?” fell 2 points between Jul 21 and Sep 4, from 8% to 6%.

Coverage momentum and market odds are separate readings — one can move without the other. A price is what the crowd believes, shown as a signal, not a forecast of ours.
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Counts computed from our committed signal record (Jul 21 – Sep 4, 46 tracked days). Informational only — not financial, legal, or investment advice. Prediction-market prices are shown as a signal of what the crowd believes. Terms · Privacy · page rendered Sep 4, 6:58 PM PT