Diplomacy · curated

Russia–Ukraine war

One event, one record — every framing of this event across news coverage and the crowd’s pricing resolves to this one key, so nothing fragments. Tracked since 2026-05-24; last seen 2026-09-03.

This event publishes a maintained truth record — /api/truth/russia-ukraine-war (also via the get_truth_object MCP tool). Layer clocks are stated per layer there; the “last seen” above is this card’s coverage-and-pricing clock.

Matched mentions in window

1,189

news items matched to this event in the coverage window — the list below is a sample, not the full set.

Crowd questions

43

Distinct framings the crowd is pricing right now — near-duplicate strike/deadline variants collapse into the 6 shown below.

Windows

8

Time windows tracked — most active: December 2026.

When the activity clusters1,108 tracked mentions by market deadline window — the peak is December 2026.
When the activity clusters
AreaMentions
2026244
September 2026199
October 2026104
November 20262
December 2026290
2027196
March 202711
June 202762
WHO THIS INVOLVES
putin →russia →trump →ukraine →donbaszelenskyy

In the coverage

A sample of the recent reporting behind this event, with the original source behind every headline.

What the crowd is asking

Live question framings from public prediction markets — one sensor we cite for where consensus sits, never advice on which way to lean.

Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027? · 9 months out
view contract at the venue → · last crowd price 14.5% (2026-09-04)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027? · 9 months out
view contract at the venue → · last crowd price 99.95% (2026-05-09)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027? · 9 months out
view contract at the venue → · last crowd price 46.5% (2026-09-04)
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027? · 4 months out
view contract at the venue → · last crowd price 6.5% (2026-09-04)
Ukraine peace referendum passed before 2027? · 4 months out
view contract at the venue → · last crowd price 4.6% (2026-08-30)
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together before 2027? · 4 months out
view contract at the venue → · last crowd price 7.5% (2026-08-30)
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The crowd’s questions are cited as a public consensus sensor; mention counts are our own coverage record. Informational only — not advice. As of 2026-09-04 · live snapshot.