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Signal Bureau What’s happening · what the record shows

Hormuz

The Strait of Hormuz — the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman through which roughly a fifth of the world's oil passes.

Coverage of Hormuz is fading : 28 signals on the latest tracked day, down 12% from its three-week baseline of 32, across 7 domains (down from 10 a week ago). That makes it the #98 most-covered of the 348 concerns we track.

If Hormuz matters to your work, attention is draining away — the pace of news no longer demands a daily check.

What’s changed

6 of the last 7 tracked days ran below the three-week baseline — a sustained cooling, not a one-day dip.

What the reporting says

Across 642 tracked stories from 116 outlets, reporting on Hormuz most often describes military action (105), public statements (102), sanctions or trade (25), meetings or visits (22), economic releases (12), price levels (6).

It shows up alongside Oil (383 — meetings or visits ×3), Iran (514 — sanctions or trade ×3), Oman (114), Trump (259), Jordan (114), United States (203), Middle East (191), Israel (169).

Two steps out: China (through Iran, 343 shared stories on the weaker link); Russia (through Iran, 319 shared stories on the weaker link); President Donald Trump (through Iran, 285 shared stories on the weaker link); Congress (through Trump, 259 shared stories on the weaker link).

Tracked since Apr 12, with coverage on 46 separate days — concentrated in Iran Regime and Energy.

What the crowd is pricing

The odds the crowd puts on “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?” fell 26 points between Jul 21 and Sep 4, from 54% to 28%.

Coverage momentum and market odds are separate readings — one can move without the other. A price is what the crowd believes, shown as a signal, not a forecast of ours.
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Counts computed from our committed signal record (Jul 21 – Sep 4, 46 tracked days). Informational only — not financial, legal, or investment advice. Prediction-market prices are shown as a signal of what the crowd believes. Terms · Privacy · page rendered Sep 4, 8:24 PM PT