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Signal Bureau What’s happening · what the record shows

Taiwan

A self-governed island claimed by China; it manufactures most of the world's advanced semiconductors, placing it at the center of technology and security risk.

Coverage of Taiwan is rising : 19 signals on the latest tracked day, up 280% from its three-week baseline of 5, across 13 domains (up from 3 a week ago). That makes it the #151 most-covered of the 348 concerns we track.

If Taiwan matters to your work, coverage is climbing off its baseline — worth a closer-than-usual look this week.

What’s changed

5 of the last 7 tracked days ran above the three-week baseline — a sustained move, not a one-day spike.

What the reporting says

Across 202 tracked stories from 89 outlets, reporting on Taiwan most often describes disaster (24), meetings or visits (11), public statements (9), military action (7), sanctions or trade (6), acquisition (4).

It shows up alongside China (91), Iceland (32), AI (65), Earthquake (27), Japan (46), South Korea (37), Semiconductor (33), Nvidia (29).

Two steps out: European Union (through China, 91 shared stories on the weaker link); Immigration (through China, 91 shared stories on the weaker link); India (through China, 91 shared stories on the weaker link); Iran (through China, 91 shared stories on the weaker link).

Tracked since Apr 6, with coverage on 48 separate days — concentrated in Geophysical.

What the crowd is pricing

The odds the crowd puts on “China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?” held at 7% between Jul 21 and Sep 4.

Coverage momentum and market odds are separate readings — one can move without the other. A price is what the crowd believes, shown as a signal, not a forecast of ours.
Ask the engine about Taiwan + Track Taiwan for a daily read
Counts computed from our committed signal record (Jul 22 – Sep 4, 36 tracked days). Informational only — not financial, legal, or investment advice. Prediction-market prices are shown as a signal of what the crowd believes. Terms · Privacy · page rendered Sep 4, 6:58 PM PT