Oil
Crude oil; the world's most-traded commodity, setting the base cost of fuel, transport, and industry.
Coverage of Oil is holding steady : 72 signals on the latest tracked day, down 26% from its three-week baseline of 97, across 24 domains (up from 23 a week ago). That makes it the #22 most-covered of the 348 concerns we track.
Oil is steady by its own history. Its normal rhythm is about 97 signals a day across 24 domains (46 tracked days). A real move would be a day at 121+ signals — 25% above that baseline, the bar our trend read calls accelerating — or a spread into domains beyond its usual 24. That is the move that would push it up the Wire. It sits on our Energy Desk.
What’s changed
7 of the last 7 tracked days ran below the three-week baseline — a sustained cooling, not a one-day dip.
- U.S.-Venezuela Oil Deal Threatens China’s Oil-Backed Loans · Oil Price · 2026-09-04
- Brent Nears $96 as Iran Conflict Keeps Oil Market on Edge · Oil Price · 2026-09-04
- Why Oil Majors Don’t Want to Build New U.S. Refineries · Oil Price · 2026-09-03
- UK Borrowing Costs Surge as Oil Shock Rattles Global Markets · Oil Price · 2026-09-03
- Save the Children aid for 1.5 million in need wiped out by Iran war oil shock · The Guardian · 2026-09-04 · usually covers Australia
- Yields rise, oil jumps; US and Iran resume military attacks · Reuters · 2026-09-03 · usually covers Intelligence
What the reporting says
Across 1,368 tracked stories from 232 outlets, reporting on Oil most often describes military action (116), public statements (106), sanctions or trade (48), economic releases (41), meetings or visits (37), launches or releases (24).
It shows up alongside Hormuz (383 — meetings or visits ×3), Iran (601 — sanctions or trade ×6, ceasefire or deal ×3, meetings or visits ×3), Trump (371 — ceasefire or deal ×4, sanctions or trade ×2), United States (268), Middle East (263), China (212 — sanctions or trade ×2), Inflation (208), President Donald Trump (183).
Two steps out: Israel (through Iran, 423 shared stories on the weaker link); White House (through Trump, 341 shared stories on the weaker link); Russia (through Iran, 319 shared stories on the weaker link); Congress (through Trump, 282 shared stories on the weaker link).
Tracked since Sep 26, with coverage on 75 separate days — concentrated in Energy.
What the crowd is pricing
The odds the crowd puts on “Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?” fell 6 points between Jul 21 and Sep 4, from 16% to 10%.