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Signal Bureau What’s happening · what the record shows

India

The world's most populous country — a nuclear power and fast-growing major economy.

Coverage of India is rising : 96 signals on the latest tracked day, up 57% from its three-week baseline of 61, across 26 domains (down from 34 a week ago). That makes it the #15 most-covered of the 348 concerns we track.

If India matters to your work, coverage is climbing off its baseline — worth a closer-than-usual look this week.

What’s changed

7 of the last 7 tracked days ran above the three-week baseline — a sustained move, not a one-day spike.

What the reporting says

Across 1,380 tracked stories from 193 outlets, reporting on India most often describes economic releases (166), meetings or visits (58), disaster (51), public statements (48), military action (32), launches or releases (30).

It shows up alongside GDP (233), Modi (194 — meetings or visits ×2), Delhi (164), China (266 — meetings or visits ×3), Congress (113), Nepal (94), AI (146 — meetings or visits ×3), Iran (143).

Two steps out: Russia (through China, 266 shared stories on the weaker link); Trump (through China, 266 shared stories on the weaker link); United States (through China, 266 shared stories on the weaker link); Immigration (through China, 230 shared stories on the weaker link).

Tracked since Mar 16, with coverage on 53 separate days — concentrated in India South Asia.

What the crowd is pricing

The odds the crowd puts on “Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026?” fell 1 points between Jul 21 and Aug 24, from 13% to 12%.

Coverage momentum and market odds are separate readings — one can move without the other. A price is what the crowd believes, shown as a signal, not a forecast of ours.
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Counts computed from our committed signal record (Jul 28 – Sep 4, 39 tracked days). Informational only — not financial, legal, or investment advice. Prediction-market prices are shown as a signal of what the crowd believes. Terms · Privacy · page rendered Sep 4, 6:58 PM PT