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Signal Bureau What’s happening · what the record shows

Hurricane

A rotating tropical storm with sustained winds above 74 mph; tracked for landfall, damage, and insurance losses.

Coverage of Hurricane is holding steady : 58 signals on the latest tracked day, down 13% from its three-week baseline of 67, across 4 domains (down from 5 a week ago). That makes it the #95 most-covered of the 348 concerns we track.

What’s changed

6 of the last 7 tracked days ran below the three-week baseline — a sustained cooling, not a one-day dip.

What the reporting says

Across 461 tracked stories from 66 outlets, reporting on Hurricane most often describes disaster (153), public statements (12), launches or releases (9), sporting outcomes (5), military action (4), regulatory approvals (3).

It shows up alongside National Hurricane Center (127), Atlantic (88), Miami (80), Tropical Storm Dolly (72), Tropical Storm Edouard (45), Karina (39), Noaa (51), Iceland (70).

Two steps out: AI (through Iceland, 70 shared stories on the weaker link); Earthquake (through Iceland, 70 shared stories on the weaker link); European Union (through Iceland, 70 shared stories on the weaker link); Hormuz (through Iceland, 70 shared stories on the weaker link).

Tracked since Jan 26, with coverage on 25 separate days — concentrated in Extreme Weather and Weather Climate.

What the crowd is pricing

The odds the crowd puts on “Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?” fell 8 points between Aug 1 and Aug 20, from 24% to 16%.

Coverage momentum and market odds are separate readings — one can move without the other. A price is what the crowd believes, shown as a signal, not a forecast of ours.
Ask the engine about Hurricane + Track Hurricane for a daily read
Counts computed from our committed signal record (Jul 21 – Sep 4, 45 tracked days). Informational only — not financial, legal, or investment advice. Prediction-market prices are shown as a signal of what the crowd believes. Terms · Privacy · page rendered Sep 4, 8:20 PM PT