The Hormuz record.

One maintained truth object, fully inspectable. This page is assembled from the same live record our machines serve. It keeps the kinds of thing apart — what the issuing authorities publish (first-party), what reporting says (attributed), what our own machinery counts and measures (ours), and what markets price (belief) — and labels each claim with the kind of source behind it and the date it speaks for. Nothing here is retyped for marketing. When the record changes, this page changes with it.

What the record holds now

Separate layers, kept apart on purpose — first-party operational state, attributed reporting, our own record counts, our coverage metric, market expectation, our judgment, and the reporting- consensus ledger. They can legitimately disagree; when they do, this page shows the disagreement instead of resolving it. Reading only one of them is how a machine gets this wrong. Snapshot date for our own measurements: 2026-09-04.

0 · Observed operational state — primary sources, 2 of 3 confirmed Sep 4

First-party operational issuers for the strait itself, re-read by an automated daily fetch. Each row below leads with what the issuer said and the date that reading speaks for — never a blended “as of today.” The automated daily fetch cannot currently reach at least one source. A failed fetch moves nothing: the affected source holds its last verified reading, marked on its own row with the date it speaks for.

⚠ UKMTO / JMIC advisory notes has been paused since Aug 9 — its row below keeps the last verified reading, with its date. The other 2 of 3 confirmed on the latest fetch, Sep 4.

1 · Observed reporting — attributed sources

What outside reporting in our tracked set says about the strait itself. Attributed, not first-party operational data — we link each source; verify at the source. Every row carries the date our sweep captured it, or says plainly that the date was not recorded.

2 · The record itself — our own count of documents we ingested and can name

3 · Coverage state — our own measurement: our attention, not the strait

4 · Market expectation — attributed, belief not fact

We preserve the market signal as it is: a probability stays a probability, its market stays linked, and our public grading of that sensor — those prices scored against how reality resolved — measures that the signal survives our machinery without losing its meaning. Markets price collective belief about defined outcomes; they do not prove present facts.

5 · Our reading — derived judgment over the cited layers

UKMTO / JMIC advisory notes: Update 073 (2026-07-19): Strait of Hormuz assessed SEVERE (“deliberate hostile action highly likely”); Gulf of Oman SUBSTANTIAL (reading of Jul 19, its latest; source paused since Aug 9). The press corpus's claims ledger holds 694 kernel facts (19 corroborated by 3+ independent reporting chains); it speaks for Sep 2, re-checked Sep 2 with nothing new to publish. No market rows ride this record right now, and we say so rather than borrowing one. Read together, each layer speaking for its own date — the oldest load-bearing reading above is of Jul 19 — that is the maintained state of Hormuz as this record holds it: our derived judgment over the cited layers, attributed throughout, never a forecast of ours.

6 · Reporting consensus — retroactive claims ledger, computed 2026-09-02

Computed Sep 2; last re-checked Sep 2 — each claim below carries its own first-seen date.

Scope, first: 595 articles archived by our sweeps between 2026-07-28 and 2026-09-02 — secondary press; primary maritime and government feeds were not wired during this window. Everything below speaks for that archive only. What the press corpus agrees on is counted honestly: kernel facts (who, what, when, where) scored by how many independent reporting chains assert them — syndication collapsed first, so forty echoes of one wire story count once. Consensus measures reporting agreement, not reality. The “why” is frame, not fact: listed with its chain, never averaged.

A receipt links the archived article where our sweep read the claim — often a roundup, so a receipt’s own headline subject can differ from the claim it carries. That is what the corpus held, shown as held.

The frames — how different outlets explain it. Attributed, never averaged; divergence here is signal, not noise.

• A U.S. Central Command spokesperson stated the attack on Larak came after the IRGC were observed preparing to launch rockets with sea mines into the Strait of Hormuz. (chain: oil price)
• A U.S. attack on Larak Island paves the way for renewed heavy warfare. (chain: press tv)
• A U.S. naval blockade succeeds where years of sanctions failed by cutting off Iran's main sources of foreign-currency earnings. (chain: reuters)
• A senior Iranian source said conditions in the Strait of Hormuz will become worse for vessels that violate rules set by Tehran for passage through the waterway. (chain: middle east eye)
• A senior Iranian source warned that Tehran was prepared to respond harshly to any further U.S. attack. (chain: middle east eye)
• After decades of withstanding sanctions, Iran's economy has adapted through finding new trading partners and building domestic industries. (chain: daily sabah economy)
• An Iranian official described Washington's latest sanctions drive as 'all-out economic war'. (chain: reuters)
• Any agreement between Iran and Oman does not necessarily mean normalization of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz will occur. (chain: reuters)
• Attacking Kharg would severely disrupt Iran's energy trade and put huge pressure on its economy. (chain: reuters)
• Bessent called for Iran to turn over highly enriched uranium, stop support of proxies, and open the Strait of Hormuz. (chain: imf)
• Bessent described the latest wave of sanctions as 'the single greatest financial offensive ever' against Iran and warned that banks and businesses would share in Iran's isolation if they refuse to cooperate. (chain: al jazeera – breaking news, world news and video from al jazeera)
• Bessent described the sanctions as an asphyxiation of the Iranian regime. (chain: sri international)
• Bessent stressed that Tehran must not be permitted to threaten international commerce or use the Strait of Hormuz as leverage against the global economy. (chain: middle east eye)
• Buyers compete for spot LNG cargoes amid stalled LNG traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. (chain: oil price)
• CENTCOM described the action as a limited, precise action against IRGC minelaying forces posing an imminent threat in the Strait of Hormuz. (chain: al-monitor — middle east, oil price)
• CENTCOM said the operation followed recent attempted IRGC attacks against commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and U.S. military personnel. (chain: daily sabah economy)
• CENTCOM said the strikes followed recent attempted attacks by the IRGC against commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and against American service members. (chain: al-monitor — middle east, bbc news — middle east, reuters)
• China and Egypt face the threat of US sanctions over financial links to Iran. (chain: china)
• Citi raised its Brent forecast for 2026 and sees potential for $150 oil if Strait of Hormuz disruption persists. (chain: energynow.com)
• Commercial vessel-tracking data shows much lower levels of oil flow through Hormuz than US official claims. (chain: reddit r/energy)
• Darzi accused the US and others involved in the attacks of war crimes. (chain: reuters)
• Darzi blamed the United States and Israel for disruption to the Strait of Hormuz, describing their military campaign against Iran as a violation of the UN Charter and international law. (chain: tehran times)
• Donald Trump asserted on Monday that the U.S. and Israeli bombardment left Iran 'a failed nation.' (chain: guardian)
• Energy experts disagreed with the U.S. position on pipelines making the Strait of Hormuz irrelevant. (chain: reddit r/energy)
• Fees for managing shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have been a recurring theme in Iran-Oman negotiations. (chain: cbs)
• Few tanker owners are willing to send vessels through Hormuz, leaving exporters competing for the smaller pool that will take the risk. (chain: reuters)
• Further military strikes will not force concessions from Iran, according to U.S. assessment. (chain: reuters)
• General Mohebbi dismissed US President Donald Trump's remarks claiming the Strait of Hormuz belongs to America as baseless, unrealistic and pure fantasy. (chain: tehran times)
• General Mohebbi emphasized that the United States has come to fully comprehend the consequences of military action against Iranian infrastructure. (chain: tehran times)
• General Mohebbi highlighted the failure of 'the enemy's theatrical attempt to reopen the Strait of Hormuz,' noting that such objectives have remained unachieved due to Iran's deterrence posture and regional influence. (chain: tehran times)
• Ghalibaf said the security of the Strait of Hormuz lies in the absence of US troops. (chain: mehr news agency)
• Gharibabadi indicated that the Strait of Hormuz is 'not our only tool' against Washington, saying that the 'US should not think that it is the only party that capable of causing economic damage'. (chain: reuters)
• Gharibabadi said Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz because the United States failed to fulfil its commitments under the memorandum of understanding. (chain: al-monitor — middle east)
• Gharibabadi's statement suggests that the success of the Hormuz understanding is contingent upon U.S. commitments, indicating uncertainty in the agreement's implementation. (chain: reuters)
• IGL attributed the price hike to escalating tension in West Asia affecting LNG ship movements through the Strait of Hormuz, rising demand and storage in Europe ahead of winter. (chain: india today economy)
• ING commodity analysts were cautious about expectations of a swift return to normal oil flows in the Persian Gulf. (chain: reuters)
• India's priorities at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Bishkek include energy security amid uncertainties regarding the Strait of Hormuz. (chain: india today economy)
• Inflation has worsened since the US and Israel attacked Iran. (chain: american automobile association)
• Intensifying US-Iran tensions have rattled energy markets around the Strait of Hormuz. (chain: crypto briefing)
• Investors remained on alert over escalating tensions in the Middle East following renewed U.S. strikes in the Strait of Hormuz. (chain: yonhap english)
• Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz at the end of February, trapping millions of barrels of oil supply in the Persian Gulf. (chain: oil price)
• Iran condemned US economic sanctions on Friday as state terrorism. (chain: press tv)
• Iran entered the war weakened by years of sanctions and economic mismanagement, and its position today is considerably worse. (chain: reuters)
• Iran has been accused of laying mines and attacking tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. (chain: al jazeera – breaking news, world news and video from al jazeera)
• Iran has been threatening oil tankers that transit the Strait of Hormuz without authorization. (chain: reuters)
• Iran has used its control of the Strait of Hormuz to squeeze Washington and global energy markets. (chain: al jazeera – breaking news, world news and video from al jazeera)
• Iran is refusing to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz unless it can charge ships. (chain: daily sabah economy)
• Iran justified its strikes on Jordan as a response to US-Zionist aerial aggression. (chain: daily sabah economy)
• Iran rejected the latest US sanctions, with Economy Minister Ali Madanizadeh saying they will fail. (chain: treasury scott bessent)
• Iran said it remained in a state of war and the Strait of Hormuz had become a national-security issue following the recent conflict. (chain: tehran times)
• Iran stated that it will remain militarily closed until the United States accepts Tehran's conditions, which include lifting a naval blockade, ending sanctions, releasing frozen assets, and providing reparations. (chain: crypto briefing)
• Iran stated the strait would not open unless the U.S. met Tehran's conditions under an interim ceasefire agreement struck in June 2026. (chain: al-monitor — middle east)
• Iran's Economy Minister Ali Madanizadeh called the sanctions the same old talk. (chain: bbc news — middle east)
• Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps rejected the U.S.'s repeated claims that the Strait of Hormuz is open. (chain: middle east eye)
• Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said that if the United States stops obstructing and returns to the memorandum of understanding, Iran can open the Strait of Hormuz within the framework of the agreement. (chain: reuters)
• Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps was observed preparing to launch rockets with sea mines into the Strait of Hormuz, according to a U.S. official. (chain: press tv)
• Iran's Revolutionary Guard said the United States is obstructing an agreement between Iran and Oman on the Strait of Hormuz. (chain: reuters)
• Iran's ambassador stated the attack was a violation of Article 2(4) of the UN Charter. (chain: tehran times)
• Iran's ambassador stated the only source of insecurity threatening freedom of navigation in the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz was the illegal and aggressive conduct of the US and Israeli regime. (chain: tehran times)
• Iran's crude exports are choked off by the US Navy's maritime blockade in the Gulf of Oman. (chain: oil price)
• Iran's deputy permanent representative to the UN Gholamhossein Darzi described the attacks as a clear violation of Iran's sovereignty and territorial integrity. (chain: reuters)
• Iran's military capability will keep most commercial operators away from the Strait of Hormuz. (chain: oil price)
• Iran's office of the supreme leader described the Strait of Hormuz as the pillar of Iran's new security order and as transformative as possessing a nuclear weapon. (chain: guardian)
• Iran's president insisted that the United States would achieve nothing with its new sanctions campaign. (chain: al-monitor — middle east)
• Iranian officials said Tehran will not fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz until Washington fulfils its commitments including ending the blockade, releasing frozen assets, and lifting sanctions. (chain: reuters)
• Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps spokesman Hossein Mohebbi said 'The Strait of Hormuz belongs to Iran and the country of Oman' and 'We have been in negotiations with Oman for about a month, and we have reached results that are acceptable to both sides'. (chain: daily sabah economy)
• Kaja Kallas stated that ships should not be charged tolls or fees to use previously open routes through the Strait of Hormuz. (chain: politico eu)
• Latest US sanctions on Iran disproportionately impact the country's civilian population. (chain: al jazeera – breaking news, world news and video from al jazeera)
• Modi will advocate for peace, dialogue, and diplomacy while addressing issues of energy supply disruptions, threats to Indian seafarers, attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz, and safety of the Indian community in Iran. (chain: india today economy)
• Natural gas prices in Europe need to jump by December for European storage to fill up with enough inventory for winter if the Strait of Hormuz crisis persists. (chain: reuters)
• Neither side has gained the upper hand in the Iran war since the initial 28 February 2026 strikes. (chain: al jazeera – breaking news, world news and video from al jazeera)
• Oil prices climbed past $90 per barrel as the Middle East conflict kept the Strait of Hormuz shut. (chain: times of india)
• Oil prices rose on Monday morning due to the US striking Iranian rocket launchers positioned near the Strait of Hormuz. (chain: oil price)
• Oil production in the Americas became a viable alternative to the Middle East's vast hydrocarbon resources since the outbreak of the Iran war and closure of the Strait of Hormuz six months ago. (chain: reuters)
• Pezeshkian warned that a return by the United States to a policy of pressure and threats risked derailing diplomatic efforts to end the war. (chain: reuters)
• Pezeshkian's statement that 'we may have many things; we may even have missiles and bombs, but they are of no use' appears to be a dig at Iranian hardliners who reject negotiations with the U.S. and favor continued war. (chain: fortune | fortune)
• Qatar hasn't managed to sneak as many vessels out of Hormuz as the UAE has done in recent months. (chain: reuters)
• Renewed fighting between the US and Iran raised fresh concerns about further delays to LNG exports from the Persian Gulf. (chain: reuters)
• Risks are rising for vessels transiting through the Strait of Hormuz due to the Middle East conflict. (chain: marine link)
• Sanctions have historically raised prices of basic goods in Iran. (chain: daily sabah economy)
• Senator Chris Murphy listed not achieving initial war objectives, Tehran's control of the strategic Strait of Hormuz and the depletion of army resources, including its munition supply as reasons for Washington's setbacks. (chain: middle east eye)
• Shipping traffic at the Strait of Hormuz rose slightly amid diplomatic efforts. (chain: reuters)
• Since mid-July, the US has reimposed its military blockade on Iranian ports and sanctions on Iran's oil trade, resulting in an effective blockade on Iranian oil shipments. (chain: reuters)
• Sporadic attacks mainly around the Strait of Hormuz have dimmed the prospects of a final peace agreement. (chain: al-monitor — middle east)
• Tanker market participants told Bloomberg that costs of moving cargoes through Hormuz have risen further since TotalEnergies CEO's statement. (chain: reuters)
• Tehran showed no sign of backing down, vowing to withstand US pressure, pursue diplomacy and maintain control over the Strait of Hormuz. (chain: daily sabah economy)
• Tehran's actions justified Iran's actions to fight back against US-Israeli attacks. (chain: middle east eye)
• The Bishkek Declaration reiterates the SCO's denunciation of unprovoked US and Israeli attacks on Iranian territory. (chain: tehran times)
• The Bishkek Declaration states that military strikes on Iran violate the principles and norms of international law and the UN Charter. (chain: tehran times)
• The IRGC rejected US claims that the Strait of Hormuz is open, saying US officials continue to lie to cover up their failures. (chain: middle east eye)
• The IRGC said U.S. officials are continuing to 'lie' to 'cover up their failures' regarding the Strait of Hormuz. (chain: middle east eye)
• The IRGC stated their attack on Jordan was in response to US-Zionist aerial aggression. (chain: al-monitor — middle east)
• The Iran war and disruption through the Strait of Hormuz drove crude prices and refining margins sharply higher. (chain: cbs)
• The Iranian Foreign Ministry condemned the US attacks on Larak Island and justified the Jordan strikes as legitimate defense. (chain: daily sabah economy)
• The June ceasefire quickly unravelled due to disagreements between Iran and the U.S. over the strait. (chain: al-monitor — middle east)
• The Middle East conflict has made shipping of fuels to east Africa challenging due to ongoing security threats in the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. (chain: reuters)
• The Persian Gulf disruption from the Iran war is the biggest one since the 1990 Gulf War. (chain: oil price)
• The Strait of Hormuz blockade is blamed for dragging consumers down. (chain: 24/7 wall st)
• The Strait of Hormuz blockade is blamed for rising agricultural prices. (chain: 24/7 wall st)
• The Strait of Hormuz is the global oil supply waterway that Iran has effectively closed to shipping according to the source. (chain: al-monitor — middle east)
• The Strait of Hormuz remains largely shut down nearly six months after the Iran war began. (chain: gaza health ministry)
• The Strait of Hormuz remains the market's central concern regarding crude flows. (chain: hellenic shipping)
• The Trump administration described the sanctions announcement as an 'economic D-Day' against Iran. (chain: ukmto)
• The U.S. action on Larak Island was described by Central Command as a limited, precise strike. (chain: crypto briefing)
• The U.S. and Iran traded recriminations over Washington's promise to increase economic pressure on Tehran by targeting its trade partners for sanctions. (chain: al-monitor — middle east)
• The U.S. attacked rocket launchers on an Iranian island on Sunday, saying they were preparing to launch mines into the Strait of Hormuz. (chain: aaa)
• The U.S. military said its attacks against Iran were in response to a threat to the Strait of Hormuz. (chain: nyt > top stories)
• The U.S. military said the Revolutionary Guard was preparing rockets carrying sea mines for launch into the Strait of Hormuz. (chain: reuters)
• The U.S. strikes against Iranian targets were retaliation for the IRGC targeting commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and U.S. service members in the region. (chain: american petroleum institute)
• The U.S. strikes on Iran escalated the Middle East conflict and sent oil prices higher. (chain: hindustan times business)
• The U.S. strikes on Iran followed recent attempted attacks by the IRGC against commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. (chain: guardian)
• The U.S. war against Iran and near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz have sent global energy costs soaring. (chain: daily sabah economy)
• The U.S. would need to lift its blockade on Iranian ports and ease sanctions before normalization of oil flows could occur, according to ING analysts. (chain: reuters)
• The US announcement of 'toughest sanctions in history' against Iran did relatively little to push oil prices away from their comfort zone around $90 per barrel. (chain: energy ministry)
• The United States said it attacked Iranian rocket launchers on Larak Island to prevent Tehran planting mines in the Strait of Hormuz. (chain: al-monitor — middle east)
• The attack on Iran sent energy prices spiralling. (chain: american automobile association)
• The closing of the Strait of Hormuz resulted from recent war and its consequences. (chain: tehran times)
• The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has severely disrupted Qatar's liquefied natural gas exports. (chain: reuters)
• The closure of the Strait of Hormuz hits UK households through higher energy costs and through monetary policy and the labour market. (chain: cebr)
• The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is sapping growth from nearly all G20 economies. (chain: al-monitor — middle east)
• The crucial discussions between Modi and Putin are expected to focus on India-Russia economic relations and fuel supply stability amid global energy disruptions caused by the Middle Eastern crisis and blockages at the Strait of Hormuz. (chain: india today economy)
• The current blockade has stopped fresh crude cargoes reaching China, increasing pressure on Iran's government finances and foreign-currency reserves. (chain: reuters)
• The current shock is driven in part by the ongoing war in the Middle East and the subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz. (chain: latest news from euronews | euronews rss)
• The diplomatic stalemate heightens the risk of regional escalation in the Strait of Hormuz. (chain: crypto briefing)
• The education sector appears poised to take a major hit from the latest US sanctions on Iran. (chain: al jazeera – breaking news, world news and video from al jazeera)
• The eurozone inflation rise was largely driven by energy prices climbing amid war in Iran and disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. (chain: eurostat)
• The frame that concerns about the Strait of Hormuz possibly remaining closed into winter fueled European gas price rises. (chain: netherlands)
• The frame that reports of progress in Middle East talks eased supply concerns regarding the Hormuz blockade on Wednesday. (chain: netherlands)
• The frame that the U.S. sanctions announcement was not as forceful as some traders had expected according to Saxo Bank head of commodity strategy Ole Hansen. (chain: marine link)
• The frame that the shift from military conflict to economic pressure in the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran reduced some of the oil market's anxiety. (chain: marine link)
• The higher opening of Indian stock markets was amid oil prices falling on expectations that talks between Iran and Qatar may open the Strait of Hormuz. (chain: hindustan times business)
• The inability of the United States to protect its Gulf allies from Iranian attacks or to keep the Strait of Hormuz open has fatally undermined the core security bargain that justified its network of military bases in the region, according to Marc Lynch. (chain: tehran times)
• The market concerns were that re-escalation could unwind much of the rebound in oil volumes estimated to have left the Persian Gulf via the Strait of Hormuz in recent weeks. (chain: reuters)
• The oil market has been ignoring Trump's posts for months because they do not reflect reality and have no connection to the number of barrels actually leaving the Strait of Hormuz. (chain: tehran times)
• The proposed Iran-Oman framework for the Strait of Hormuz is not yet binding. (chain: gaza health ministry)
• The recent U.S. strike on Larak Island decreased the likelihood of imminent peace talks between Iran and the United States. (chain: crypto briefing)
• The rejection left diplomats without a framework to restart talks on reopening the Strait of Hormuz. (chain: reuters)
• The renewed escalation between the U.S. and Iran raised concerns over further disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, amplifying inflation concerns and driving a sharp rise in global bond yields. (chain: guardian)
• The shipping community did not believe Trump's announcement that all mines had been removed from the Strait of Hormuz. (chain: reuters)
• The six-month-old conflict between the U.S. and Iran had recently shifted into an economic standoff fought through sanctions, blockades, and economic pressure before weekend flare-ups. (chain: guardian)
• The standoff over the Strait of Hormuz remains unresolved, according to reporting in Al Jazeera. (chain: al jazeera – breaking news, world news and video from al jazeera)
• The two sides remain at odds over control of the Strait of Hormuz, with Tehran using it as leverage. (chain: al-monitor — middle east)
• The war has curtailed traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. (chain: aaa)
• The war has exposed deep divisions in the Muslim world after Iran struck targets in neighboring Gulf Arab countries during the fighting and restricted movement through the Strait of Hormuz. (chain: independent)
• TotalEnergies said investment in alternative Gulf export routes had become an absolute priority following the paralysis of Hormuz during the Iran war. (chain: reuters)
• Traders took news reports of Iran-Oman talks about managing the Strait of Hormuz to mean the waterway could soon reopen for normal traffic. (chain: reuters)
• Trump administration announced an 'Economic D-Day' of new sanctions against Tehran. (chain: middle east eye)
• Trump believes new US sanctions will lead to the collapse of the Iranian regime. (chain: bbc news — middle east)
• Trump declared the Strait of Hormuz 'an American territory' and stated he would formally designate it as such 'pretty soon'. (chain: oil price)
• Trump has not persuaded most voters that Iran's missile buildup and nuclear ambitions required action. (chain: reuters)
• Trump pledged a strong response after Iran's strikes on the King Hussein and Al Azraq bases in Jordan. (chain: hellenic shipping)
• Trump threatened Oman because he is dissatisfied with the country nearing an agreement with Iran over the Strait of Hormuz. (chain: tehran times)
• Trump's administration is seeking to restore the Strait of Hormuz as a free, international passageway for global oil shipments. (chain: tehran times)
• U.S. Central Command said it targeted Iran as it posed an 'imminent threat' in the Strait of Hormuz. (chain: middle east eye)
• U.S. Navy Capt. Timothy Hawkins said the Larak Island strikes were preemptive to stop IRGC forces preparing to launch rockets with sea mines into the Strait of Hormuz. (chain: reuters)
• U.S. President Donald Trump said the strikes came in response to Iran forces allegedly attempting to place additional mines in the Strait of Hormuz. (chain: reuters)
• U.S. Vice President JD Vance said that Washington is focused on ensuring the free flow of commerce through the Strait of Hormuz. (chain: middle east eye)
• Vance said the attacks on Iran's Larak Island were in response to Iranians who were about to place mines in the Strait of Hormuz. (chain: middle east eye)
• Washington appears to be leaning more on economic pressure by announcing plans to cut Iran off from its trading partners with increased sanctions. (chain: al-monitor — middle east)
• Washington has stepped up efforts to economically pressure Iran amid a deadlock in truce talks. (chain: treasury scott bessent)
• Washington is pivoting to a strategy of tougher sanctions and economic isolation to force Tehran to accept its terms for a peace deal. (chain: al jazeera – breaking news, world news and video from al jazeera)
• What began as a mission to eliminate Iran's nuclear capabilities has evolved into a campaign to keep the Strait of Hormuz open. (chain: foreign policy)

• Consensus measures reporting agreement, not reality — a uniformly repeated error passes any count.
• Chains are collapsed by syndication tracing; residual shared-upstream risk remains.
• Retroactive: computed 2026-09-02 over the archive, not tracked live.
• Receipt gate: 11 extracted claim(s) excluded — no receipt whose own text supports the claim (the extractor's row binding is verified mechanically, never trusted).
• Domain-competence gate: 256 kernel claim(s) and 50 frame(s) excluded — every supporting chain came from outlets confidently placed outside this subject's coverage domains (aerospace_defense, auto, energy, europe_politics, india_south_asia, iran_regime, …). An outlet counts as competent when its measured home beat intersects the domains the subject's own corpus lives in; outlets with too few observations are never branded and always count.
• Semantic-dome membership: 1500 kernel claim(s) and 330 frame(s) were source-faithful but failed typed-signature membership and are excluded — a claim enters this ledger only if its signature names a family entity (party, place, or authority) AND either its action class sits in the family's geopolitical profile or it names a family place outright.

The recorded history

Every state change is written to a ledger the moment we observe it, with how long the prior state held. The ledger records what it measured — a coverage state transition, our attention metric, not a claim about the strait. It began recording 2026-07-19; states before that date were tracked but not yet ledgered, and we say so rather than backfilling: we do not backfill history we did not record. The record is never edited after the fact.

The receipts

Every claim on this page carries the kind of source behind it, so nothing borrows more authority than it has:

• First-party operational — layer 0, the issuing authorities themselves, each row dated and carrying its own fetch state; a failing source says so in words.
• Reporting (attributed) — outside coverage, dated and linked in layer 1; verify at the source.
• Our own count — layer 2, documents/outlets/active days we ingested and can name; and the coverage regime, tracked days, and every ledgered transition come from our record, not an outside source.
• Market (attributed) — Polymarket questions, linked in layer 4; belief, not fact.
• Derived judgment — layer 5, our reading over the layers above; ours, and labeled ours.
• Reporting consensus — layer 6, kernel facts scored by independent-chain agreement after syndication collapse; measures what the press agrees on, never reality itself — and when its ledger is held, the hold is printed on the layer.

Before and after: the answer a machine gets

What keeping the layers apart changes for a machine reader. The left column is what a one-layer reader concludes; the right column is what the maintained record keeps in view. Each line is derived from the record’s own layers — the same truth object machines fetch — not from a staged chat.

Provenance of this panel: each line above is derived from the record’s own layers, not from a staged chat. The coverage numbers, the headline, and the market price are fields in the same truth object served at GET /api/truth/hormuz; the right column is composed from the record’s dated layers, with the served judgment sentence one tap away, verbatim. No transcripts were invented — the disagreement is in the data.

Verify it yourself, machine or human: this exact record is served live by the API and MCP — this page, GET /api/truth/hormuz, and the get_truth_object tool are all assembled by the same builder, so what you fetch is what you are reading. One honest distinction: get_entity("hormuz") returns the broader live entity dossier — a different, complementary object, useful for trajectory and evidence receipts, but not this record.

curl -s https://sigb.ai/api/truth/hormuz

curl -s https://sigb.ai/api/mcp -X POST -H 'content-type: application/json' \
  -d '{"jsonrpc":"2.0","id":1,"method":"tools/call","params":{"name":"get_truth_object","arguments":{"topic":"hormuz"}}}'

Honest limits

• Primary maritime and government sources are identified and verified (layer 0: UKMTO/JMIC on a 1–3 day cadence, NAVAREA IX daily). The automated daily fetch cannot currently reach at least one source. A failed fetch moves nothing: the affected source holds its last verified reading, marked on its own row with the date it speaks for. Each row says which date it speaks for, and nothing updates silently.
• The coverage regime measures our declared source universe (139 actively-scraped verticals — definitions on the API page), not the whole internet, and it is our attention — not the strait's status.
• The transition ledger started 2026-07-19. Earlier state was tracked, not ledgered; we do not backfill history we did not record.
• Cadence, stated plainly: the record refreshes on a daily sweep with intraday market updates. It is maintained, not instantaneous.
• Market probabilities are collective belief about defined outcomes, never proof that an event occurred.

Informational only, never financial, legal, or investment advice. This exhibit is rebuilt from the live record on every data deploy.