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Signal Bureau What’s happening · what the record shows

Interest Rates

The price of borrowing money; the benchmark rates set by central banks steer economies and asset prices.

Coverage of Interest Rates is rising : 50 signals on the latest tracked day, up 108% from its three-week baseline of 24, across 10 domains (down from 13 a week ago). That makes it the #42 most-covered of the 348 concerns we track.

If Interest Rates matters to your work, coverage is climbing off its baseline — worth a closer-than-usual look this week.

What’s changed

6 of the last 7 tracked days ran above the three-week baseline — a sustained move, not a one-day spike.

What the reporting says

Across 617 tracked stories from 108 outlets, reporting on Interest Rates most often describes rate decisions (142), economic releases (37), public statements (14), acquisition (10), military action (6), meetings or visits (6).

It shows up alongside Inflation (287), Federal Reserve (165), Treasury (142), AI (109), Kevin Warsh (103), Central Bank (91), CPI (83), Jackson Hole (81).

Two steps out: Iran (through Inflation, 214 shared stories on the weaker link); Oil (through Inflation, 208 shared stories on the weaker link); Bessent (through Treasury, 142 shared stories on the weaker link); Scott Bessent (through Treasury, 142 shared stories on the weaker link).

Tracked since Apr 14, with coverage on 37 separate days — concentrated in Auto.

What the crowd is pricing

The odds the crowd puts on “Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?” rose 14 points between Jul 21 and Sep 4, from 44% to 58%.

Coverage momentum and market odds are separate readings — one can move without the other. A price is what the crowd believes, shown as a signal, not a forecast of ours.
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Counts computed from our committed signal record (Jul 21 – Sep 4, 46 tracked days). Informational only — not financial, legal, or investment advice. Prediction-market prices are shown as a signal of what the crowd believes. Terms · Privacy · page rendered Sep 4, 8:21 PM PT