{"schema":"sb.truth.v1","subject":"rate-decision-interest-rates","title":"The Rate decision: Interest Rates record","tier":"standard","tierNote":"Standard-tier record, generated from the maintained event registry: reporting, our coverage metric, market expectation, and state history. No primary-source layer yet — first-party issuer verification is what upgrades a record to full tier, the discipline the hormuz record demonstrates.","subjectBinding":{"entity":"interest rates","bound":true,"basis":"named-in-subject","statement":"Lead subject \"interest rates\" — named in this record's own subject line (\"Rate decision: Interest Rates\"). The reporting, record, market and state-history layers below are that subject's own; none is borrowed from a neighbouring entity. Not bound: australia, mexico — the registry attaches them to this event, but the subject line does not name them.","candidatesConsidered":["australia","interest rates","mexico"],"alsoDefensible":[],"rejected":["australia","mexico"],"actionClass":"rate-decision"},"publishState":"published","publishStateNote":null,"asOf":"2026-09-04","generatedAt":"2026-09-04T23:47:27.001318+00:00","tracked":true,"access":"Free — no key, no charge. Serves at GET /api/truth/rate-decision-interest-rates and answers the get_truth_object MCP tool. (No exhibit page for standard-tier records yet — the API and MCP responses ARE the record.)","attribution":"Cite 'Signal Bureau' with https://sigb.ai/api/truth/rate-decision-interest-rates so readers can verify.","layers":{"primarySources":{"label":"Observed operational state","status":"absent","basis":"not present on a standard-tier record — no first-party issuer has been routed for this subject yet; nothing here is previewed to look finished","sources":[]},"reporting":{"label":"Observed reporting","basis":"attributed sources — outside coverage in our tracked set; verify at the source. Prediction-market question pages are excluded: a venue question is not journalism, whoever hosts it. Filtered for EVENT relevance, not just subject: a row is served only if it names \"interest rates\" AND carries a term from this record's own subject line, or two terms from its market-question set. The subject's name alone is the key its corpus was sampled on, so it proves nothing about this event — each served row names the terms it matched in eventTerms.","status":"observed","note":"Event-relevance filtered: 11 attributable rows sampled for \"interest rates\", 1 served, 10 withheld as not shown to be about \"Rate decision: Interest Rates\". The served count is reduced on purpose and reported, never quietly smaller.","sampledForSubject":11,"served":1,"withheldNotEventRelevant":10,"relevanceTerms":{"subjectLine":["decision"],"questionSet":["bank","mexico","decreases","bps","november","meeting","reserve","australia"]},"items":[{"title":"Inflation expectations softer than predicted ahead of interest rate decision","url":"https://www.cityam.com/inflation-expectations-softer-than-predicted-ahead-of-interest-rate-decision/","date":"2026-09-04","source":"City A.M.","eventTerms":["decision"],"relevance":"subject-line-term","tier":"outlet","kind":"reporting — attributed; verify at the source"}]},"record":{"label":"The record itself","basis":"our own count of documents we ingested and can name — not a claim about the world, and market questions are excluded because a question is not reporting","documents":617,"outlets":108,"activeDays":37,"firstSeen":"2026-04-14","firstSeenStatus":"observed","firstSeenNote":null,"lastSeen":"2026-09-04","lastSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeenNote":null,"homeDomains":["auto"],"asserts":{"rate-decision":142,"econ-release":37,"utterance":14,"acquisition":10,"military-action":6,"meeting-visit":6},"assertionCoverage":0.379,"movesWith":[{"name":"inflation","together":287,"sharedDomains":["auto"]},{"name":"federal reserve","together":165,"sharedDomains":["auto"]},{"name":"treasury","together":142,"sharedDomains":["auto"]},{"name":"ai","together":109,"sharedDomains":["auto"]},{"name":"kevin warsh","together":103,"sharedDomains":["auto"]},{"name":"central bank","together":91,"sharedDomains":["auto"]},{"name":"cpi","together":83,"sharedDomains":["auto"]},{"name":"jackson hole","together":81,"sharedDomains":["auto"]}],"movesWithLabels":["inflation","federal reserve","treasury","ai","kevin warsh","central bank","cpi","jackson hole"],"provenance":"curated"},"coverageMetric":{"label":"Coverage state","basis":"our own measurement — our attention, not the event's state","direction":"rising","baselineRelativePct":88,"reading":"Our coverage of Rate decision: Interest Rates is 88% above its 3-week baseline. This measures our attention — how much our tracked set is writing about it — not the event itself.","trackedDays":109,"eventMentions":520,"periods":[{"period":"2026-11","mentions":110},{"period":"2026-10","mentions":110},{"period":"2026-09","mentions":300}]},"market":{"label":"Market expectation","basis":"attributed — markets price collective belief about defined outcomes; belief, not fact, and never proof that an event occurred","rowsStatus":"observed","rowsNote":null,"current":[{"question":"Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-september-762","source":"Polymarket (macro)","probabilityPct":58,"change24hPct":null,"pricedAt":"2026-09-04","capturedAt":"2026-08-05","deadline":null,"deadlinePassed":false,"reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-december-20260729232808632","source":"Polymarket (us-politics)","probabilityPct":68,"change24hPct":10,"pricedAt":null,"capturedAt":"2026-08-13","deadline":null,"deadlinePassed":false,"reading":"belief, not fact"}],"arc":[],"eventArc":{"name":"Rate decision: Interest Rates","slug":"rate-decision-interest-rates","questionCount":25,"questions":["Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after November 2026 meeting?","No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting?","Reserve Bank of Australia decreases interest rates by 50+ bps at the November 2026 meeting?","No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the November 2026 meeting?"],"mentions":520,"firstSeen":"2026-06-24","firstSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeen":"2026-08-11","lastSeenStatus":"observed","stampNote":null}},"judgment":{"label":"Our reading","basis":"derived judgment — our reading over the layers above; ours, and labeled ours","asOf":"2026-09-04","text":"A standard-tier record keeps its layers apart and does not collapse them. Lead subject \"interest rates\" — named in this record's own subject line (\"Rate decision: Interest Rates\"). The reporting, record, market and state-history layers below are that subject's own; none is borrowed from a neighbouring entity. Not bound: australia, mexico — the registry attaches them to this event, but the subject line does not name them. Our coverage metric measures our attention; the reporting is attributed, not verified against first-party issuers; the market layer prices belief, not fact. Reading any single layer as \"the answer\" is how a machine gets this wrong — and this record's honest limit is stated in its tier: no primary-source layer exists here yet."},"consensus":{"label":"Reporting consensus","basis":"retroactive claims ledger — kernel facts scored by independent-chain agreement","pending":true,"note":"No claims ledger has been computed for this subject yet — consensus scoring is full-tier machinery.","retired":[]},"stateHistory":{"label":"State history","basis":"recorded transitions — never edited after the fact","status":"none-recorded","note":"Measured zero: the ledger holds no coverage-state transition for \"interest rates\". We do not backfill history we did not record.","transitions":[]}}}