{"schema":"sb.truth.v1","subject":"product-launch-anthropic-claude-opus","title":"The Product launch: Anthropic & Claude Opus record","tier":"standard","tierNote":"Standard-tier record, generated from the maintained event registry: reporting, our coverage metric, market expectation, and state history. No primary-source layer yet — first-party issuer verification is what upgrades a record to full tier, the discipline the hormuz record demonstrates.","subjectBinding":{"entity":"anthropic","bound":true,"basis":"named-in-subject","statement":"Lead subject \"anthropic\" — named in this record's own subject line (\"Product launch: Anthropic & Claude Opus\"). The reporting, record, market and state-history layers below are that subject's own; none is borrowed from a neighbouring entity.","candidatesConsidered":["anthropic","claude opus"],"alsoDefensible":["claude opus"],"rejected":[],"actionClass":"launch-release"},"publishState":"published","publishStateNote":null,"asOf":"2026-09-04","generatedAt":"2026-09-04T23:47:27.001318+00:00","tracked":true,"access":"Free — no key, no charge. Serves at GET /api/truth/product-launch-anthropic-claude-opus and answers the get_truth_object MCP tool. (No exhibit page for standard-tier records yet — the API and MCP responses ARE the record.)","attribution":"Cite 'Signal Bureau' with https://sigb.ai/api/truth/product-launch-anthropic-claude-opus so readers can verify.","layers":{"primarySources":{"label":"Observed operational state","status":"absent","basis":"not present on a standard-tier record — no first-party issuer has been routed for this subject yet; nothing here is previewed to look finished","sources":[]},"reporting":{"label":"Observed reporting","basis":"attributed sources — outside coverage in our tracked set; verify at the source. Prediction-market question pages are excluded: a venue question is not journalism, whoever hosts it. Filtered for EVENT relevance, not just subject: a row is served only if it names \"anthropic\" AND carries a term from this record's own subject line, or two terms from its market-question set. The subject's name alone is the key its corpus was sampled on, so it proves nothing about this event — each served row names the terms it matched in eventTerms.","status":"observed","note":"Event-relevance filtered: 15 attributable rows sampled for \"anthropic\", 2 served, 13 withheld as not shown to be about \"Product launch: Anthropic & Claude Opus\". The served count is reduced on purpose and reported, never quietly smaller.","sampledForSubject":15,"served":2,"withheldNotEventRelevant":13,"relevanceTerms":{"subjectLine":["product","launch","claude","opus"],"questionSet":["debut","score","least","1470","december","model","humanity","last","exam","higher"]},"items":[{"title":"Anthropic launches Claude Fable 5.1 after inking $35B cloud deal with Lambda","url":"https://siliconangle.com/2026/09/01/anthropic-launches-claude-fable-5-1-inking-35b-cloud-deal-with-lambda/","date":"2026-09-02","source":"SiliconANGLE","eventTerms":["launch","claude"],"relevance":"subject-line-term","tier":"outlet","kind":"reporting — attributed; verify at the source"},{"title":"Anthropic, OpenAI Launch New AI Models - 조선일보","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiiAFBVV95cUxQcFY1akZ1R00xWVZ6MlVWY05WY0t0YzU2elVHdHVfZXJFSllhazZlWEgxa21QN1R6WnloUWRBcGJ6MHVKY24xSGZ6eDYtbkFocVNRdmFaVEpnaEdVVVFvczFDLU9oQTRfRlFvV1FyTkdZMmliRDROa2h0T3FXU0Rpd1d2WTRsRmth?oc=5&hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US:en","date":null,"source":null,"eventTerms":["launch"],"relevance":"subject-line-term","tier":"social/aggregator","kind":"reporting — attributed; verify at the source"}]},"record":{"label":"The record itself","basis":"our own count of documents we ingested and can name — not a claim about the world, and market questions are excluded because a question is not reporting","documents":1268,"outlets":253,"activeDays":162,"firstSeen":"2026-03-03","firstSeenStatus":"observed","firstSeenNote":null,"lastSeen":"2026-09-04","lastSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeenNote":null,"homeDomains":["ai_investing"],"asserts":{"launch-release":71,"utterance":59,"acquisition":37,"ipo-listing":22,"military-action":13,"price-threshold":12},"assertionCoverage":0.209,"movesWith":[{"name":"openai","together":681,"sharedDomains":["ai_investing"]},{"name":"ai","together":911,"verbs":{"acquisition":8,"meeting-visit":2}},{"name":"prediction market context","together":182,"sharedDomains":["ai_investing"]},{"name":"gemini","together":160,"sharedDomains":["ai_investing"]},{"name":"fable","together":159,"sharedDomains":["ai_investing"]},{"name":"claude code","together":158,"sharedDomains":["ai_investing"]},{"name":"ai model","together":136,"sharedDomains":["ai_investing"]},{"name":"llms","together":135,"sharedDomains":["ai_investing"]}],"movesWithLabels":["openai","ai","prediction market context","gemini","fable","claude code","ai model","llms"],"provenance":"curated"},"coverageMetric":{"label":"Coverage state","basis":"our own measurement — our attention, not the event's state","direction":"steady","baselineRelativePct":-25,"reading":"Our coverage of Product launch: Anthropic & Claude Opus is 25% below its 3-week baseline. This measures our attention — how much our tracked set is writing about it — not the event itself.","trackedDays":116,"eventMentions":102,"periods":[{"period":"2026-12","mentions":66},{"period":"2026","mentions":36}]},"market":{"label":"Market expectation","basis":"attributed — markets price collective belief about defined outcomes; belief, not fact, and never proof that an event occurred","rowsStatus":"none-captured","rowsNote":"Measured zero: no priced capture rides \"anthropic\" in this build.","current":[],"arc":[],"eventArc":{"name":"Product launch: Anthropic & Claude Opus","slug":"product-launch-anthropic-claude-opus","questionCount":17,"questions":["Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026?","Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 35% or higher?"],"mentions":102,"firstSeen":"2026-07-17","firstSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeen":"2026-08-18","lastSeenStatus":"observed","stampNote":null}},"judgment":{"label":"Our reading","basis":"derived judgment — our reading over the layers above; ours, and labeled ours","asOf":"2026-09-04","text":"A standard-tier record keeps its layers apart and does not collapse them. Lead subject \"anthropic\" — named in this record's own subject line (\"Product launch: Anthropic & Claude Opus\"). The reporting, record, market and state-history layers below are that subject's own; none is borrowed from a neighbouring entity. Our coverage metric measures our attention; the reporting is attributed, not verified against first-party issuers; the market layer prices belief, not fact. Reading any single layer as \"the answer\" is how a machine gets this wrong — and this record's honest limit is stated in its tier: no primary-source layer exists here yet."},"consensus":{"label":"Reporting consensus","basis":"retroactive claims ledger — kernel facts scored by independent-chain agreement","pending":true,"note":"No claims ledger has been computed for this subject yet — consensus scoring is full-tier machinery.","retired":[]},"stateHistory":{"label":"State history","basis":"recorded transitions — never edited after the fact","status":"recorded","note":null,"transitions":[{"field":"coverage state","from":"rising","to":"steady","at":"2026-09-01T15:11:18.454578+00:00","heldSince":"2026-08-28T19:04:33.478410+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"steady","to":"rising","at":"2026-09-03T15:09:53.143842+00:00","heldSince":"2026-09-01T15:11:18.454578+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"rising","to":"steady","at":"2026-09-04T15:11:35.460717+00:00","heldSince":"2026-09-03T15:09:53.143842+00:00"}]}}}