{"schema":"sb.truth.v1","subject":"israel-iran-conflict","title":"The Israel Iran Conflict record","tier":"standard","tierNote":"Standard-tier record, generated from the maintained event registry: reporting, our coverage metric, market expectation, and state history. No primary-source layer yet — first-party issuer verification is what upgrades a record to full tier, the discipline the hormuz record demonstrates.","subjectBinding":{"entity":"israel","bound":true,"basis":"named-in-subject","statement":"Lead subject \"israel\" — named in this record's own subject line (\"Israel Iran Conflict\"). The reporting, record, market and state-history layers below are that subject's own; none is borrowed from a neighbouring entity. Not bound: hormuz, iceland, nuclear — the registry attaches them to this event, but the subject line does not name them.","candidatesConsidered":["hormuz","iceland","iran","israel","nuclear"],"alsoDefensible":["iran"],"rejected":["hormuz","iceland","nuclear"],"actionClass":null},"publishState":"published","publishStateNote":null,"asOf":"2026-09-04","generatedAt":"2026-09-04T23:47:27.001318+00:00","tracked":true,"access":"Free — no key, no charge. Serves at GET /api/truth/israel-iran-conflict and answers the get_truth_object MCP tool. (No exhibit page for standard-tier records yet — the API and MCP responses ARE the record.)","attribution":"Cite 'Signal Bureau' with https://sigb.ai/api/truth/israel-iran-conflict so readers can verify.","layers":{"primarySources":{"label":"Observed operational state","status":"absent","basis":"not present on a standard-tier record — no first-party issuer has been routed for this subject yet; nothing here is previewed to look finished","sources":[]},"reporting":{"label":"Observed reporting","basis":"attributed sources — outside coverage in our tracked set; verify at the source. Prediction-market question pages are excluded: a venue question is not journalism, whoever hosts it. Filtered for EVENT relevance, not just subject: a row is served only if it names \"israel\" AND carries a term from this record's own subject line, or two terms from its market-question set. The subject's name alone is the key its corpus was sampled on, so it proves nothing about this event — each served row names the terms it matched in eventTerms.","status":"none-event-relevant","note":"Measured zero after event-relevance filtering: we sampled 11 attributable rows for \"israel\" and not one could be shown to be about \"Israel Iran Conflict\" — each carried the subject's name and nothing else this record is about. They are withheld rather than served: a subject's general coverage is not this event's reporting, and serving it under this record's label would be worse than serving nothing. That is a count, not a gap.","sampledForSubject":11,"served":0,"withheldNotEventRelevant":11,"relevanceTerms":{"subjectLine":["iran","conflict","curated","fordow","nuclear","strike","war","iranian","irgc","kharg","island","natanz"],"questionSet":[]},"items":[]},"record":{"label":"The record itself","basis":"our own count of documents we ingested and can name — not a claim about the world, and market questions are excluded because a question is not reporting","documents":1002,"outlets":159,"activeDays":57,"firstSeen":"2026-03-30","firstSeenStatus":"observed","firstSeenNote":null,"lastSeen":"2026-09-04","lastSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeenNote":null,"homeDomains":["middle_east"],"asserts":{"military-action":129,"utterance":116,"ceasefire-deal":96,"meeting-visit":29,"sanction-trade":25,"launch-release":17},"assertionCoverage":0.479,"movesWith":[{"name":"iran","together":423,"sharedDomains":["middle_east"],"verbs":{"sanction-trade":2}},{"name":"gaza","together":414,"sharedDomains":["middle_east"],"verbs":{"ceasefire-deal":92}},{"name":"middle east","together":210,"sharedDomains":["middle_east"],"verbs":{"ceasefire-deal":30}},{"name":"trump","together":265,"verbs":{"ceasefire-deal":8,"sanction-trade":2}},{"name":"lebanon","together":113,"sharedDomains":["middle_east"]},{"name":"united states","together":209},{"name":"hormuz","together":169},{"name":"oil","together":163}],"movesWithLabels":["iran","gaza","middle east","trump","lebanon","united states","hormuz","oil"],"provenance":"curated"},"coverageMetric":{"label":"Coverage state","basis":"our own measurement — our attention, not the event's state","direction":"steady","baselineRelativePct":-9,"reading":"Our coverage of Israel Iran Conflict is 9% below its 3-week baseline. This measures our attention — how much our tracked set is writing about it — not the event itself.","trackedDays":114,"eventMentions":88,"periods":[{"period":"2027","mentions":61},{"period":"2026-09","mentions":27}]},"market":{"label":"Market expectation","basis":"attributed — markets price collective belief about defined outcomes; belief, not fact, and never proof that an event occurred","rowsStatus":"observed","rowsNote":null,"current":[{"question":"Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-throughptptpt-20260716224448963","source":"Polymarket (us-politics)","probabilityPct":80,"change24hPct":18.5,"pricedAt":null,"capturedAt":"2026-08-05","deadline":null,"deadlinePassed":false,"reading":"belief, not fact"}],"arc":[],"eventArc":{"name":"Israel Iran Conflict","slug":"israel-iran-conflict","questionCount":0,"questions":[],"mentions":88,"firstSeen":"2026-03-29","firstSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeen":"2026-09-03","lastSeenStatus":"observed","stampNote":null}},"judgment":{"label":"Our reading","basis":"derived judgment — our reading over the layers above; ours, and labeled ours","asOf":"2026-09-04","text":"A standard-tier record keeps its layers apart and does not collapse them. Lead subject \"israel\" — named in this record's own subject line (\"Israel Iran Conflict\"). The reporting, record, market and state-history layers below are that subject's own; none is borrowed from a neighbouring entity. Not bound: hormuz, iceland, nuclear — the registry attaches them to this event, but the subject line does not name them. Our coverage metric measures our attention; the reporting is attributed, not verified against first-party issuers; the market layer prices belief, not fact. Reading any single layer as \"the answer\" is how a machine gets this wrong — and this record's honest limit is stated in its tier: no primary-source layer exists here yet."},"consensus":{"label":"Reporting consensus","basis":"retroactive claims ledger — kernel facts scored by independent-chain agreement","pending":true,"note":"No claims ledger has been computed for this subject yet — consensus scoring is full-tier machinery.","retired":[]},"stateHistory":{"label":"State history","basis":"recorded transitions — never edited after the fact","status":"recorded","note":null,"transitions":[{"field":"coverage state","from":"rising","to":"steady","at":"2026-09-01T15:11:18.454578+00:00","heldSince":"2026-08-30T15:08:25.442508+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"steady","to":"fading","at":"2026-09-03T15:09:53.143842+00:00","heldSince":"2026-09-01T15:11:18.454578+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"fading","to":"steady","at":"2026-09-04T15:11:35.460717+00:00","heldSince":"2026-09-03T15:09:53.143842+00:00"}]}}}