{"schema":"sb.truth.v1","subject":"gaza-ceasefire","title":"The Gaza ceasefire record","tier":"standard","tierNote":"Standard-tier record, generated from the maintained event registry: reporting, our coverage metric, market expectation, and state history. No primary-source layer yet — first-party issuer verification is what upgrades a record to full tier, the discipline the hormuz record demonstrates.","subjectBinding":{"entity":"gaza","bound":true,"basis":"named-in-subject","statement":"Lead subject \"gaza\" — named in this record's own subject line (\"Gaza ceasefire\"). The reporting, record, market and state-history layers below are that subject's own; none is borrowed from a neighbouring entity. Not bound: israel, palestine, trump — the registry attaches them to this event, but the subject line does not name them.","candidatesConsidered":["gaza","israel","palestine","trump"],"alsoDefensible":[],"rejected":["israel","palestine","trump"],"actionClass":"ceasefire-deal"},"publishState":"published","publishStateNote":null,"asOf":"2026-09-04","generatedAt":"2026-09-04T23:47:27.001318+00:00","tracked":true,"access":"Free — no key, no charge. Serves at GET /api/truth/gaza-ceasefire and answers the get_truth_object MCP tool. (No exhibit page for standard-tier records yet — the API and MCP responses ARE the record.)","attribution":"Cite 'Signal Bureau' with https://sigb.ai/api/truth/gaza-ceasefire so readers can verify.","layers":{"primarySources":{"label":"Observed operational state","status":"absent","basis":"not present on a standard-tier record — no first-party issuer has been routed for this subject yet; nothing here is previewed to look finished","sources":[]},"reporting":{"label":"Observed reporting","basis":"attributed sources — outside coverage in our tracked set; verify at the source. Prediction-market question pages are excluded: a venue question is not journalism, whoever hosts it. Filtered for EVENT relevance, not just subject: a row is served only if it names \"gaza\" AND carries a term from this record's own subject line, or two terms from its market-question set. The subject's name alone is the key its corpus was sampled on, so it proves nothing about this event — each served row names the terms it matched in eventTerms.","status":"observed","note":"Event-relevance filtered: 7 attributable rows sampled for \"gaza\", 1 served, 6 withheld as not shown to be about \"Gaza ceasefire\". The served count is reduced on purpose and reported, never quietly smaller.","sampledForSubject":7,"served":1,"withheldNotEventRelevant":6,"relevanceTerms":{"subjectLine":["ceasefire","curated","cancelled","truce","war","hamas","hostage","israel","rafah"],"questionSet":["flotilla","reach","may"]},"items":[{"title":"More than 900 killed in Gaza this year despite ceasefire, Hamas-run health ministry says","url":"https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c7708dy33pdo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss","date":"2026-09-02","source":"BBC","eventTerms":["ceasefire","hamas"],"relevance":"subject-line-term","tier":"outlet","kind":"reporting — attributed; verify at the source"}]},"record":{"label":"The record itself","basis":"our own count of documents we ingested and can name — not a claim about the world, and market questions are excluded because a question is not reporting","documents":462,"outlets":51,"activeDays":17,"firstSeen":"2026-08-11","firstSeenStatus":"observed","firstSeenNote":null,"lastSeen":"2026-09-04","lastSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeenNote":null,"homeDomains":["middle_east","turkey"],"asserts":{"ceasefire-deal":99,"utterance":49,"military-action":48,"sanction-trade":7,"launch-release":7,"election":6},"assertionCoverage":0.513,"movesWith":[{"name":"israel","together":414,"sharedDomains":["middle_east"],"verbs":{"ceasefire-deal":92}},{"name":"west bank","together":90,"sharedDomains":["middle_east","turkey"]},{"name":"netanyahu","together":75,"sharedDomains":["middle_east","turkey"],"verbs":{"ceasefire-deal":3}},{"name":"palestine","together":73,"sharedDomains":["middle_east","turkey"]},{"name":"middle east","together":110,"sharedDomains":["middle_east"],"verbs":{"ceasefire-deal":30}},{"name":"iran","together":94,"sharedDomains":["middle_east"]},{"name":"turkish","together":65,"sharedDomains":["turkey"]},{"name":"trump","together":98,"verbs":{"ceasefire-deal":8}}],"movesWithLabels":["israel","west bank","netanyahu","palestine","middle east","iran","turkish","trump"],"provenance":"curated"},"coverageMetric":{"label":"Coverage state","basis":"our own measurement — our attention, not the event's state","direction":"insufficient_history","baselineRelativePct":null,"reading":"History still too thin for a baseline; day-over-day read.","trackedDays":null,"eventMentions":309,"periods":[{"period":"2027","mentions":52},{"period":"2026","mentions":257}]},"market":{"label":"Market expectation","basis":"attributed — markets price collective belief about defined outcomes; belief, not fact, and never proof that an event occurred","rowsStatus":"observed","rowsNote":null,"current":[{"question":"Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/foreign-intervention-in-gaza-by","source":"Polymarket (ai-tech)","probabilityPct":34,"change24hPct":-19.5,"pricedAt":null,"capturedAt":"2026-08-06","deadline":"2026-12-31","deadlinePassed":false,"reading":"belief, not fact"}],"arc":[],"eventArc":{"name":"Gaza ceasefire","slug":"gaza-ceasefire","questionCount":5,"questions":["Will the flotilla reach Gaza by May 31?"],"mentions":309,"firstSeen":"2026-03-29","firstSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeen":"2026-08-22","lastSeenStatus":"observed","stampNote":null}},"judgment":{"label":"Our reading","basis":"derived judgment — our reading over the layers above; ours, and labeled ours","asOf":"2026-09-04","text":"A standard-tier record keeps its layers apart and does not collapse them. Lead subject \"gaza\" — named in this record's own subject line (\"Gaza ceasefire\"). The reporting, record, market and state-history layers below are that subject's own; none is borrowed from a neighbouring entity. Not bound: israel, palestine, trump — the registry attaches them to this event, but the subject line does not name them. Our coverage metric measures our attention; the reporting is attributed, not verified against first-party issuers; the market layer prices belief, not fact. Reading any single layer as \"the answer\" is how a machine gets this wrong — and this record's honest limit is stated in its tier: no primary-source layer exists here yet."},"consensus":{"label":"Reporting consensus","basis":"retroactive claims ledger — kernel facts scored by independent-chain agreement","pending":true,"note":"No claims ledger has been computed for this subject yet — consensus scoring is full-tier machinery.","retired":[]},"stateHistory":{"label":"State history","basis":"recorded transitions — never edited after the fact","status":"recorded","note":null,"transitions":[{"field":"coverage state","from":"insufficient_history","to":"fading","at":"2026-09-02T15:12:31.676793+00:00","heldSince":"2026-08-30T15:08:25.442508+00:00"},{"field":"wire tier","from":"watch","to":"flagged","at":"2026-09-02T15:12:31.676793+00:00","heldSince":"2026-08-30T15:08:25.442508+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"fading","to":"insufficient_history","at":"2026-09-04T15:11:35.460717+00:00","heldSince":"2026-09-02T15:12:31.676793+00:00"},{"field":"wire tier","from":"flagged","to":"watch","at":"2026-09-04T15:11:35.460717+00:00","heldSince":"2026-09-02T15:12:31.676793+00:00"}]}}}