{"schema":"sb.truth.v1","subject":"election-michigan-republican","title":"The Election: Michigan & Republican record","tier":"standard","tierNote":"Standard-tier record, generated from the maintained event registry: reporting, our coverage metric, market expectation, and state history. No primary-source layer yet — first-party issuer verification is what upgrades a record to full tier, the discipline the hormuz record demonstrates.","subjectBinding":{"entity":"michigan","bound":true,"basis":"named-in-subject","statement":"Lead subject \"michigan\" — named in this record's own subject line (\"Election: Michigan & Republican\"). The reporting, record, market and state-history layers below are that subject's own; none is borrowed from a neighbouring entity. Not bound: republicans — the registry attaches it to this event, but the subject line does not name it.","candidatesConsidered":["michigan","republican","republicans"],"alsoDefensible":["republican"],"rejected":["republicans"],"actionClass":"election"},"publishState":"published","publishStateNote":null,"asOf":"2026-09-04","generatedAt":"2026-09-04T23:47:27.001318+00:00","tracked":true,"access":"Free — no key, no charge. Serves at GET /api/truth/election-michigan-republican and answers the get_truth_object MCP tool. (No exhibit page for standard-tier records yet — the API and MCP responses ARE the record.)","attribution":"Cite 'Signal Bureau' with https://sigb.ai/api/truth/election-michigan-republican so readers can verify.","layers":{"primarySources":{"label":"Observed operational state","status":"absent","basis":"not present on a standard-tier record — no first-party issuer has been routed for this subject yet; nothing here is previewed to look finished","sources":[]},"reporting":{"label":"Observed reporting","basis":"attributed sources — outside coverage in our tracked set; verify at the source. Prediction-market question pages are excluded: a venue question is not journalism, whoever hosts it. Filtered for EVENT relevance, not just subject: a row is served only if it names \"michigan\" AND carries a term from this record's own subject line, or two terms from its market-question set. The subject's name alone is the key its corpus was sampled on, so it proves nothing about this event — each served row names the terms it matched in eventTerms.","status":"none-event-relevant","note":"Measured zero after event-relevance filtering: we sampled 12 attributable rows for \"michigan\" and not one could be shown to be about \"Election: Michigan & Republican\" — each carried the subject's name and nothing else this record is about. They are withheld rather than served: a subject's general coverage is not this event's reporting, and serving it under this record's label would be worse than serving nothing. That is a count, not a gap.","sampledForSubject":12,"served":0,"withheldNotEventRelevant":12,"relevanceTerms":{"subjectLine":["election","republican"],"questionSet":["mike","cox","governor","primary","republicans"]},"items":[]},"record":{"label":"The record itself","basis":"our own count of documents we ingested and can name — not a claim about the world, and market questions are excluded because a question is not reporting","documents":267,"outlets":116,"activeDays":43,"firstSeen":"2026-03-31","firstSeenStatus":"observed","firstSeenNote":null,"lastSeen":"2026-09-03","lastSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeenNote":null,"homeDomains":[],"asserts":{"sports-outcome":10,"utterance":8,"launch-release":7,"acquisition":7,"regulatory-approval":6,"sanction-trade":5},"assertionCoverage":0.225,"movesWith":[{"name":"texas","together":50},{"name":"pennsylvania","together":46},{"name":"ai","together":44},{"name":"trump","together":43},{"name":"ohio","together":40},{"name":"jersey","together":39},{"name":"google","together":33},{"name":"florida","together":30}],"movesWithLabels":["texas","pennsylvania","ai","trump","ohio","jersey","google","florida"],"provenance":"curated"},"coverageMetric":{"label":"Coverage state","basis":"our own measurement — our attention, not the event's state","direction":"rising","baselineRelativePct":72,"reading":"Our coverage of Election: Michigan & Republican is 72% above its 3-week baseline. This measures our attention — how much our tracked set is writing about it — not the event itself.","trackedDays":6,"eventMentions":156,"periods":[{"period":"2026","mentions":156}]},"market":{"label":"Market expectation","basis":"attributed — markets price collective belief about defined outcomes; belief, not fact, and never proof that an event occurred","rowsStatus":"none-captured","rowsNote":"Measured zero: no priced capture rides \"michigan\" in this build.","current":[],"arc":[],"eventArc":{"name":"Election: Michigan & Republican","slug":"election-michigan-republican","questionCount":12,"questions":["Will Mike Cox win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election?","Will the Republicans win the Michigan governor race in 2026?"],"mentions":156,"firstSeen":"2026-07-17","firstSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeen":"2026-08-12","lastSeenStatus":"observed","stampNote":null}},"judgment":{"label":"Our reading","basis":"derived judgment — our reading over the layers above; ours, and labeled ours","asOf":"2026-09-04","text":"A standard-tier record keeps its layers apart and does not collapse them. Lead subject \"michigan\" — named in this record's own subject line (\"Election: Michigan & Republican\"). The reporting, record, market and state-history layers below are that subject's own; none is borrowed from a neighbouring entity. Not bound: republicans — the registry attaches it to this event, but the subject line does not name it. Our coverage metric measures our attention; the reporting is attributed, not verified against first-party issuers; the market layer prices belief, not fact. Reading any single layer as \"the answer\" is how a machine gets this wrong — and this record's honest limit is stated in its tier: no primary-source layer exists here yet."},"consensus":{"label":"Reporting consensus","basis":"retroactive claims ledger — kernel facts scored by independent-chain agreement","pending":true,"note":"No claims ledger has been computed for this subject yet — consensus scoring is full-tier machinery.","retired":[]},"stateHistory":{"label":"State history","basis":"recorded transitions — never edited after the fact","status":"recorded","note":null,"transitions":[{"field":"coverage state","from":"steady","to":"rising","at":"2026-09-03T15:09:53.143842+00:00","heldSince":"2026-08-31T15:05:22.273998+00:00"}]}}}