{"schema":"sb.truth.v1","subject":"election-germany","title":"The Election: Germany record","tier":"standard","tierNote":"Standard-tier record, generated from the maintained event registry: reporting, our coverage metric, market expectation, and state history. No primary-source layer yet — first-party issuer verification is what upgrades a record to full tier, the discipline the hormuz record demonstrates.","subjectBinding":{"entity":"germany","bound":true,"basis":"named-in-subject","statement":"Lead subject \"germany\" — named in this record's own subject line (\"Election: Germany\"). The reporting, record, market and state-history layers below are that subject's own; none is borrowed from a neighbouring entity.","candidatesConsidered":["germany"],"alsoDefensible":[],"rejected":[],"actionClass":"election"},"publishState":"published","publishStateNote":null,"asOf":"2026-09-04","generatedAt":"2026-09-04T23:47:27.001318+00:00","tracked":true,"access":"Free — no key, no charge. Serves at GET /api/truth/election-germany and answers the get_truth_object MCP tool. (No exhibit page for standard-tier records yet — the API and MCP responses ARE the record.)","attribution":"Cite 'Signal Bureau' with https://sigb.ai/api/truth/election-germany so readers can verify.","layers":{"primarySources":{"label":"Observed operational state","status":"absent","basis":"not present on a standard-tier record — no first-party issuer has been routed for this subject yet; nothing here is previewed to look finished","sources":[]},"reporting":{"label":"Observed reporting","basis":"attributed sources — outside coverage in our tracked set; verify at the source. Prediction-market question pages are excluded: a venue question is not journalism, whoever hosts it. Filtered for EVENT relevance, not just subject: a row is served only if it names \"germany\" AND carries a term from this record's own subject line, or two terms from its market-question set. The subject's name alone is the key its corpus was sampled on, so it proves nothing about this event — each served row names the terms it matched in eventTerms.","status":"observed","note":"Event-relevance filtered: 13 attributable rows sampled for \"germany\", 1 served, 12 withheld as not shown to be about \"Election: Germany\". The served count is reduced on purpose and reported, never quietly smaller.","sampledForSubject":13,"served":1,"withheldNotEventRelevant":12,"relevanceTerms":{"subjectLine":["election"],"questionSet":["afd","seats","state","elections","september","berlin","votes","spd","cdu"]},"items":[{"title":"‘This could just be the beginning’: minorities fear first far-right win in German state election","url":"https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/sep/04/minorities-fear-first-far-right-win-in-german-state-election-saxony-anhalt-afd","date":null,"source":null,"eventTerms":["election"],"relevance":"subject-line-term","tier":"outlet","kind":"reporting — attributed; verify at the source"}]},"record":{"label":"The record itself","basis":"our own count of documents we ingested and can name — not a claim about the world, and market questions are excluded because a question is not reporting","documents":1071,"outlets":234,"activeDays":50,"firstSeen":"2026-03-31","firstSeenStatus":"observed","firstSeenNote":null,"lastSeen":"2026-09-04","lastSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeenNote":null,"homeDomains":["europe_politics"],"asserts":{"launch-release":52,"utterance":39,"military-action":33,"meeting-visit":21,"acquisition":18,"sports-outcome":11},"assertionCoverage":0.208,"movesWith":[{"name":"european union","together":228,"sharedDomains":["europe_politics"]},{"name":"france","together":228,"sharedDomains":["europe_politics"]},{"name":"spanish","together":136,"sharedDomains":["europe_politics"]},{"name":"russia","together":135,"sharedDomains":["europe_politics"]},{"name":"italy","together":133,"sharedDomains":["europe_politics"]},{"name":"netherlands","together":122,"sharedDomains":["europe_politics"]},{"name":"ukraine","together":106,"sharedDomains":["europe_politics"]},{"name":"united kingdom","together":148}],"movesWithLabels":["european union","france","spanish","russia","italy","netherlands","ukraine","united kingdom"],"provenance":"curated"},"coverageMetric":{"label":"Coverage state","basis":"our own measurement — our attention, not the event's state","direction":"rising","baselineRelativePct":49,"reading":"Our coverage of Election: Germany is 49% above its 3-week baseline. This measures our attention — how much our tracked set is writing about it — not the event itself.","trackedDays":6,"eventMentions":218,"periods":[{"period":"2026-09","mentions":26},{"period":"2026","mentions":192}]},"market":{"label":"Market expectation","basis":"attributed — markets price collective belief about defined outcomes; belief, not fact, and never proof that an event occurred","rowsStatus":"none-captured","rowsNote":"Measured zero: no priced capture rides \"germany\" in this build.","current":[],"arc":[],"eventArc":{"name":"Election: Germany","slug":"election-germany","questionCount":17,"questions":["Will AfD win the most seats in 0 German state elections in September 2026?","Will AfD win the most seats in 1 German state election in September 2026?","Berlin State Election: More Votes to AfD or SPD?","Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?"],"mentions":218,"firstSeen":"2026-07-17","firstSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeen":"2026-09-02","lastSeenStatus":"observed","stampNote":null}},"judgment":{"label":"Our reading","basis":"derived judgment — our reading over the layers above; ours, and labeled ours","asOf":"2026-09-04","text":"A standard-tier record keeps its layers apart and does not collapse them. Lead subject \"germany\" — named in this record's own subject line (\"Election: Germany\"). The reporting, record, market and state-history layers below are that subject's own; none is borrowed from a neighbouring entity. Our coverage metric measures our attention; the reporting is attributed, not verified against first-party issuers; the market layer prices belief, not fact. Reading any single layer as \"the answer\" is how a machine gets this wrong — and this record's honest limit is stated in its tier: no primary-source layer exists here yet."},"consensus":{"label":"Reporting consensus","basis":"retroactive claims ledger — kernel facts scored by independent-chain agreement","pending":true,"note":"No claims ledger has been computed for this subject yet — consensus scoring is full-tier machinery.","retired":[]},"stateHistory":{"label":"State history","basis":"recorded transitions — never edited after the fact","status":"recorded","note":null,"transitions":[{"field":"coverage state","from":"rising","to":"steady","at":"2026-09-01T15:11:18.454578+00:00","heldSince":"2026-08-31T15:05:22.273998+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"steady","to":"rising","at":"2026-09-02T15:12:31.676793+00:00","heldSince":"2026-09-01T15:11:18.454578+00:00"}]}}}