{"schema":"sb.truth.v1","subject":"election-alaska","title":"The Election: Alaska record","tier":"standard","tierNote":"Standard-tier record, generated from the maintained event registry: reporting, our coverage metric, market expectation, and state history. No primary-source layer yet — first-party issuer verification is what upgrades a record to full tier, the discipline the hormuz record demonstrates.","subjectBinding":{"entity":"alaska","bound":true,"basis":"named-in-subject","statement":"Lead subject \"alaska\" — named in this record's own subject line (\"Election: Alaska\"). The reporting, record, market and state-history layers below are that subject's own; none is borrowed from a neighbouring entity.","candidatesConsidered":["alaska"],"alsoDefensible":[],"rejected":[],"actionClass":"election"},"publishState":"published","publishStateNote":null,"asOf":"2026-09-04","generatedAt":"2026-09-04T23:47:27.001318+00:00","tracked":true,"access":"Free — no key, no charge. Serves at GET /api/truth/election-alaska and answers the get_truth_object MCP tool. (No exhibit page for standard-tier records yet — the API and MCP responses ARE the record.)","attribution":"Cite 'Signal Bureau' with https://sigb.ai/api/truth/election-alaska so readers can verify.","layers":{"primarySources":{"label":"Observed operational state","status":"absent","basis":"not present on a standard-tier record — no first-party issuer has been routed for this subject yet; nothing here is previewed to look finished","sources":[]},"reporting":{"label":"Observed reporting","basis":"attributed sources — outside coverage in our tracked set; verify at the source. Prediction-market question pages are excluded: a venue question is not journalism, whoever hosts it. Filtered for EVENT relevance, not just subject: a row is served only if it names \"alaska\" AND carries a term from this record's own subject line, or two terms from its market-question set. The subject's name alone is the key its corpus was sampled on, so it proves nothing about this event — each served row names the terms it matched in eventTerms.","status":"none-event-relevant","note":"Measured zero after event-relevance filtering: we sampled 3 attributable rows for \"alaska\" and not one could be shown to be about \"Election: Alaska\" — each carried the subject's name and nothing else this record is about. They are withheld rather than served: a subject's general coverage is not this event's reporting, and serving it under this record's label would be worse than serving nothing. That is a count, not a gap.","sampledForSubject":3,"served":0,"withheldNotEventRelevant":3,"relevanceTerms":{"subjectLine":["election"],"questionSet":["lesil","mcguire","advance","governor","primary"]},"items":[]},"record":{"label":"The record itself","basis":"our own count of documents we ingested and can name — not a claim about the world, and market questions are excluded because a question is not reporting","documents":147,"outlets":78,"activeDays":51,"firstSeen":"2025-06-05","firstSeenStatus":"observed","firstSeenNote":null,"lastSeen":"2026-09-03","lastSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeenNote":null,"homeDomains":["geophysical"],"asserts":{"disaster":29,"launch-release":13,"election":10,"utterance":3,"military-action":3,"legal-ruling":2},"assertionCoverage":0.449,"movesWith":[{"name":"earthquake","together":32,"sharedDomains":["geophysical"]},{"name":"iceland","together":24,"sharedDomains":["geophysical"]},{"name":"trump","together":29},{"name":"texas","together":22},{"name":"florida","together":20},{"name":"united states","together":20},{"name":"republican","together":18},{"name":"tennessee","together":16}],"movesWithLabels":["earthquake","iceland","trump","texas","florida","united states","republican","tennessee"],"provenance":"curated"},"coverageMetric":{"label":"Coverage state","basis":"our own measurement — our attention, not the event's state","direction":"insufficient_history","baselineRelativePct":null,"reading":"History still too thin for a baseline; day-over-day read.","trackedDays":null,"eventMentions":354,"periods":[{"period":"2026","mentions":354}]},"market":{"label":"Market expectation","basis":"attributed — markets price collective belief about defined outcomes; belief, not fact, and never proof that an event occurred","rowsStatus":"observed","rowsNote":null,"current":[{"question":"Will Dan S. Sullivan win the Alaska Senate primary by less than 3%?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/alaska-senate-primary-election-margin-of-victory-20260811144528173","source":"Polymarket (ai-tech)","probabilityPct":12,"change24hPct":-32.5,"pricedAt":null,"capturedAt":"2026-08-14","deadline":null,"deadlinePassed":false,"reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Will Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/alaska-governor-election-winner","source":"Polymarket (us-politics)","probabilityPct":52,"change24hPct":23.5,"pricedAt":null,"capturedAt":"2026-08-11","deadline":null,"deadlinePassed":false,"reading":"belief, not fact"}],"arc":[],"eventArc":{"name":"Election: Alaska","slug":"election-alaska","questionCount":12,"questions":["Will Lesil McGuire advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?"],"mentions":354,"firstSeen":"2026-07-17","firstSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeen":"2026-08-15","lastSeenStatus":"observed","stampNote":null}},"judgment":{"label":"Our reading","basis":"derived judgment — our reading over the layers above; ours, and labeled ours","asOf":"2026-09-04","text":"A standard-tier record keeps its layers apart and does not collapse them. Lead subject \"alaska\" — named in this record's own subject line (\"Election: Alaska\"). The reporting, record, market and state-history layers below are that subject's own; none is borrowed from a neighbouring entity. Our coverage metric measures our attention; the reporting is attributed, not verified against first-party issuers; the market layer prices belief, not fact. Reading any single layer as \"the answer\" is how a machine gets this wrong — and this record's honest limit is stated in its tier: no primary-source layer exists here yet."},"consensus":{"label":"Reporting consensus","basis":"retroactive claims ledger — kernel facts scored by independent-chain agreement","pending":true,"note":"No claims ledger has been computed for this subject yet — consensus scoring is full-tier machinery.","retired":[]},"stateHistory":{"label":"State history","basis":"recorded transitions — never edited after the fact","status":"none-recorded","note":"Measured zero: the ledger holds no coverage-state transition for \"alaska\". We do not backfill history we did not record.","transitions":[]}}}