{"schema":"sb.truth.v1","subject":"economic-indicator-inflation","title":"The Economic indicator: Inflation record","tier":"standard","tierNote":"Standard-tier record, generated from the maintained event registry: reporting, our coverage metric, market expectation, and state history. No primary-source layer yet — first-party issuer verification is what upgrades a record to full tier, the discipline the hormuz record demonstrates.","subjectBinding":{"entity":"inflation","bound":true,"basis":"named-in-subject","statement":"Lead subject \"inflation\" — named in this record's own subject line (\"Economic indicator: Inflation\"). The reporting, record, market and state-history layers below are that subject's own; none is borrowed from a neighbouring entity.","candidatesConsidered":["inflation"],"alsoDefensible":[],"rejected":[],"actionClass":"econ-release"},"publishState":"published","publishStateNote":null,"asOf":"2026-09-04","generatedAt":"2026-09-04T23:47:27.001318+00:00","tracked":true,"access":"Free — no key, no charge. Serves at GET /api/truth/economic-indicator-inflation and answers the get_truth_object MCP tool. (No exhibit page for standard-tier records yet — the API and MCP responses ARE the record.)","attribution":"Cite 'Signal Bureau' with https://sigb.ai/api/truth/economic-indicator-inflation so readers can verify.","layers":{"primarySources":{"label":"Observed operational state","status":"absent","basis":"not present on a standard-tier record — no first-party issuer has been routed for this subject yet; nothing here is previewed to look finished","sources":[]},"reporting":{"label":"Observed reporting","basis":"attributed sources — outside coverage in our tracked set; verify at the source. Prediction-market question pages are excluded: a venue question is not journalism, whoever hosts it. Filtered for EVENT relevance, not just subject: a row is served only if it names \"inflation\" AND carries a term from this record's own subject line, or two terms from its market-question set. The subject's name alone is the key its corpus was sampled on, so it proves nothing about this event — each served row names the terms it matched in eventTerms.","status":"none-event-relevant","note":"Measured zero after event-relevance filtering: we sampled 12 attributable rows for \"inflation\" and not one could be shown to be about \"Economic indicator: Inflation\" — each carried the subject's name and nothing else this record is about. They are withheld rather than served: a subject's general coverage is not this event's reporting, and serving it under this record's label would be worse than serving nothing. That is a count, not a gap.","sampledForSubject":12,"served":0,"withheldNotEventRelevant":12,"relevanceTerms":{"subjectLine":["economic","indicator"],"questionSet":["india","annual","between","argentina","eurozone","may"]},"items":[]},"record":{"label":"The record itself","basis":"our own count of documents we ingested and can name — not a claim about the world, and market questions are excluded because a question is not reporting","documents":961,"outlets":172,"activeDays":56,"firstSeen":"2026-04-04","firstSeenStatus":"observed","firstSeenNote":null,"lastSeen":"2026-09-04","lastSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeenNote":null,"homeDomains":["auto"],"asserts":{"econ-release":153,"rate-decision":71,"utterance":35,"military-action":27,"sanction-trade":18,"price-threshold":14},"assertionCoverage":0.376,"movesWith":[{"name":"interest rates","together":287,"sharedDomains":["auto"]},{"name":"treasury","together":186,"sharedDomains":["auto"]},{"name":"federal reserve","together":184,"sharedDomains":["auto"]},{"name":"ai","together":181,"sharedDomains":["auto"]},{"name":"cpi","together":129,"sharedDomains":["auto"]},{"name":"kevin warsh","together":119,"sharedDomains":["auto"]},{"name":"central bank","together":114,"sharedDomains":["auto"]},{"name":"iran","together":214}],"movesWithLabels":["interest rates","treasury","federal reserve","ai","cpi","kevin warsh","central bank","iran"],"provenance":"curated"},"coverageMetric":{"label":"Coverage state","basis":"our own measurement — our attention, not the event's state","direction":"fading","baselineRelativePct":-37,"reading":"Our coverage of Economic indicator: Inflation is 37% below its 3-week baseline. This measures our attention — how much our tracked set is writing about it — not the event itself.","trackedDays":111,"eventMentions":6301,"periods":[{"period":"2027","mentions":1781},{"period":"2026","mentions":4520}]},"market":{"label":"Market expectation","basis":"attributed — markets price collective belief about defined outcomes; belief, not fact, and never proof that an event occurred","rowsStatus":"none-captured","rowsNote":"Measured zero: no priced capture rides \"inflation\" in this build.","current":[],"arc":[],"eventArc":{"name":"Economic indicator: Inflation","slug":"economic-indicator-inflation","questionCount":24,"questions":["Will India’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 1.50% and 2.24%?","Will Argentina’s annual inflation be less than 20%?","Will the Eurozone's 2026 Annual Inflation be between 1.0% and 1.2%?","Will annual inflation be 3.3% or less in May?","Will annual inflation be 3.4% in May?"],"mentions":6301,"firstSeen":"2026-05-24","firstSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeen":"2026-08-31","lastSeenStatus":"observed","stampNote":null}},"judgment":{"label":"Our reading","basis":"derived judgment — our reading over the layers above; ours, and labeled ours","asOf":"2026-09-04","text":"A standard-tier record keeps its layers apart and does not collapse them. Lead subject \"inflation\" — named in this record's own subject line (\"Economic indicator: Inflation\"). The reporting, record, market and state-history layers below are that subject's own; none is borrowed from a neighbouring entity. Our coverage metric measures our attention; the reporting is attributed, not verified against first-party issuers; the market layer prices belief, not fact. Reading any single layer as \"the answer\" is how a machine gets this wrong — and this record's honest limit is stated in its tier: no primary-source layer exists here yet."},"consensus":{"label":"Reporting consensus","basis":"retroactive claims ledger — kernel facts scored by independent-chain agreement","pending":true,"note":"No claims ledger has been computed for this subject yet — consensus scoring is full-tier machinery.","retired":[]},"stateHistory":{"label":"State history","basis":"recorded transitions — never edited after the fact","status":"recorded","note":null,"transitions":[{"field":"coverage state","from":"rising","to":"steady","at":"2026-09-01T15:11:18.454578+00:00","heldSince":"2026-08-26T15:13:20.917747+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"steady","to":"insufficient_history","at":"2026-09-03T15:09:53.143842+00:00","heldSince":"2026-09-01T15:11:18.454578+00:00"},{"field":"wire tier","from":"flagged","to":"watch","at":"2026-09-03T15:09:53.143842+00:00","heldSince":"2026-09-01T15:11:18.454578+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"insufficient_history","to":"fading","at":"2026-09-04T15:11:35.460717+00:00","heldSince":"2026-09-03T15:09:53.143842+00:00"},{"field":"wire tier","from":"watch","to":"flagged","at":"2026-09-04T15:11:35.460717+00:00","heldSince":"2026-09-03T15:09:53.143842+00:00"}]}}}