{"schema":"sb.record.v1","schemaAliases":["sb.truth.v1"],"subject":"strait-of-hormuz","title":"The Strait of Hormuz record","tier":"standard","tierNote":"Standard-tier record, generated from the maintained event registry: reporting, our coverage metric, market expectation, and state history. No primary-source layer yet — first-party issuer verification is what upgrades a record to full tier, the discipline the hormuz record demonstrates.","subjectBinding":{"entity":"hormuz","bound":true,"basis":"named-in-subject","statement":"Lead subject \"hormuz\" — named in this record's own subject line (\"Strait of Hormuz\"). The reporting, record, market and state-history layers below are that subject's own; none is borrowed from a neighbouring entity.","candidatesConsidered":["hormuz"],"alsoDefensible":[],"rejected":[],"actionClass":null},"publishState":"published","publishStateNote":null,"asOf":"2026-11-02","currency":{"state":"not-reliably-current","asOf":"2026-11-02","basis":{"asOf":"2026-11-02","newestObservationAt":"2026-11-02","newestObservationBasis":"the newest day this record's counted documents carry (event-graph)","ageDays":0,"expectedCadenceDays":1,"cadenceBasis":"the fastest cadence declared by a readable registered primary source (1 day)","graceMultiple":1,"wallMultiple":3,"blindSources":[],"retiredAt":null,"recordState":"measured"},"sentence":"Sources run through 2026-11-02; 2 parts run behind: the market sensor (through 2026-10-30, 3 days behind) and the issuing-authority documents (through 2026-10-31, 2 days behind).","layers":{"primarySources":{"key":"primarySources","label":"issuing-authority documents","asOf":"2026-10-31","asOfBasis":"the newest date a read primary document speaks for (NAVAREA IX navigational warnings)","computedAt":"2026-11-02","expectedCadenceDays":1,"gapDays":2,"state":"behind","reason":"its data runs to 2026-10-31 (computed 2026-11-02), 2 days before this record's 2026-11-02 build, against an expected cadence of 1 day"},"reportingCounts":{"key":"reportingCounts","label":"count of reporting we hold","asOf":"2026-11-02","asOfBasis":"the newest day this record's counted documents carry (event-graph)","computedAt":"2026-11-02T23:20:37.552024+00:00","expectedCadenceDays":1,"gapDays":0,"state":"current","reason":""},"marketSensor":{"key":"marketSensor","label":"market sensor","asOf":"2026-10-30","asOfBasis":"the oldest price seen on a question still open by its own deadline: the layer is as current as its weakest open price","computedAt":"2026-11-02","expectedCadenceDays":1,"gapDays":3,"note":"2 of 4 open question(s) carry an older price; each row states its own priceSeenAt","state":"behind","reason":"its oldest open price was seen 2026-10-30, 3 days before this record's 2026-11-02 build, against an expected cadence of 1 day; its newest was seen 2026-11-02"},"corroboration":{"key":"corroboration","label":"corroboration pass","asOf":"2026-11-02","asOfBasis":"the end of the corroboration engine's document window","computedAt":"2026-11-02T19:51:45.897086Z","expectedCadenceDays":1,"gapDays":0,"state":"current","reason":""},"curatedReporting":{"key":"curatedReporting","label":"curated reporting rows","asOf":"2026-11-02","asOfBasis":"the newest dated reporting row the tracked-entity snapshot carries","computedAt":"2026-11-02T23:20:37.552024+00:00","expectedCadenceDays":1,"gapDays":0,"state":"current","reason":""},"consensusLedger":{"key":"consensusLedger","label":"reporting-consensus ledger","asOf":"2026-11-02","asOfBasis":"the last day of the corpus the ledger was computed over, as its own corpus statement gives it (web/signal-bureau/lib/claims_hormuz.json)","computedAt":"2026-11-02T18:50:28+00:00","expectedCadenceDays":1,"gapDays":0,"state":"current","reason":""}},"weakestLayer":"marketSensor","stateBasis":"the worse of the record's own verdict (newest observation against its cadence, blind primary sources, retirement) and the weakest layer's state: a layer behind or undatable makes a current record not reliably current"},"generatedAt":"2026-11-02T23:20:37.552024+00:00","tracked":true,"access":"Free — no key, no charge. Serves at GET /api/record/strait-of-hormuz (earlier address /api/truth/strait-of-hormuz, still answers) and answers the get_topic_record MCP tool. (No exhibit page for standard-tier records yet — the API and MCP responses ARE the record.)","attribution":"Cite 'Signal Bureau' with https://api.signalbureau.ai/api/record/strait-of-hormuz so readers can verify.","layers":{"primarySources":{"label":"Observed operational state","status":"absent","basis":"not present on a standard-tier record — no first-party issuer has been routed for this subject yet; nothing here is previewed to look finished","sources":[]},"reporting":{"label":"Observed reporting","basis":"attributed sources: outside coverage in our tracked set; verify at the source. Prediction-market question pages are excluded: a venue question is not journalism, whoever hosts it. Filtered for SUBJECT MEMBERSHIP, not just the subject's name: \"hormuz\" is the key its corpus was sampled on, so the name alone proves nothing about this event. Every row is judged by the platform's one membership gate (cross_domain.claim_subject_relevance.judge_membership) when the record's data is built, and only the rows it cleared are served; each names the gate's basis in relevance and the terms it found in eventTerms.","status":"observed","note":"Subject-membership filtered: 7 attributable rows sampled for \"hormuz\", 1 served, 6 withheld (6 judged off-subject, 0 the gate could not judge). The served count is reduced on purpose and reported, never quietly smaller.","sampledForSubject":7,"served":1,"withheldNotEventRelevant":6,"withheldOffSubject":6,"withheldUnmeasured":0,"membershipGate":"cross_domain.claim_subject_relevance.judge_membership","relevanceTerms":{"subjectLine":["hormuz","strait"],"questionSet":[],"gate":"cross_domain.claim_subject_relevance.judge_membership"},"items":[{"title":"Middle East War: Saudi intercepts drone, Iran claims 3 tankers hit mines in Hormuz","url":"https://gulfnews.com/world/mena/middle-east-war-saudi-intercepts-drone-iran-claims-3-tankers-hit-mines-in-hormuz-1.500730393","date":null,"source":null,"eventTerms":["hormuz"],"relevance":"membership:subject-named","membership":"clear","tier":"outlet","kind":"reporting — attributed; verify at the source"}]},"record":{"label":"The record itself","basis":"our own count of documents we ingested and can name — not a claim about the world, and market questions are excluded because a question is not reporting","state":"measured","reason":"","countsSource":"sb.truth-record.v1 — the maintained record is the one producer of these counts","countsBasis":"event-graph","documents":982,"outlets":197,"activeDays":43,"firstSeen":"2026-09-18","firstSeenStatus":"observed","firstSeenNote":null,"lastSeen":"2026-11-02","lastSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeenNote":null,"coverage":{"start":"2026-09-18","end":"2026-11-02","activeDays":43,"basis":["documents, outlets and the assertion mix are the event graph's corpus-wide counts for this event","active days, first and last seen are the days the attention series carries a document"]},"archive":{"scope":"cumulative entity graph since first observation — every document this subject has ever appeared in, not the maintained record's window","documents":5107,"outlets":308,"activeDays":88,"since":"2026-04-12","sinceStatus":"observed","lastSeen":"2026-11-02","lastSeenStatus":"observed","stampNote":null},"homeDomains":["energy","iran_regime","middle_east"],"asserts":null,"assertsUnit":null,"assertionCoverage":0.098,"movesWith":[{"name":"iran","together":4137,"sharedDomains":["iran_regime","middle_east"],"verbs":{"meeting-visit":19,"ceasefire-deal":4,"sanction-trade":4}},{"name":"oil","together":3508,"sharedDomains":["energy"]},{"name":"middle east","together":2205,"sharedDomains":["middle_east"]},{"name":"saudi arabia","together":1998,"sharedDomains":["middle_east"],"verbs":{"meeting-visit":2}},{"name":"red sea","together":1162,"sharedDomains":["iran_regime","middle_east"]},{"name":"israel","together":1741,"sharedDomains":["middle_east"]},{"name":"yemen","together":1619,"sharedDomains":["middle_east"]},{"name":"oil prices","together":1169,"sharedDomains":["energy"]}],"movesWithLabels":["iran","oil","middle east","saudi arabia","red sea","israel","yemen","oil prices"],"provenance":"curated"},"coverageMetric":{"label":"Coverage state","basis":"our own measurement — our attention, not the event's state","direction":"rising","baselineRelativePct":39,"reading":"Our coverage of Strait of Hormuz is 39% above its 3-week baseline. This measures our attention — how much our tracked set is writing about it — not the event itself.","trackedDays":172,"eventMentions":8040,"periods":{"state":"withheld","reason":"the event registry keeps mention counts per resolution window, not per day we observed them, so this card cannot date our attention by period; the resolution windows are served as resolutionWindows"}},"market":{"label":"Market expectation","basis":"attributed — markets price collective belief about defined outcomes; belief, not fact, and never proof that an event occurred","rowsStatus":"observed","rowsNote":null,"current":[{"question":"Will Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer be under Iranian control by November 30, 2026?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/farsi-hengam-hormuz-or-kharg-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-byptptpt-20260804165426109","source":"Polymarket (ai-tech)","probabilityPct":4,"change24hPct":null,"pricedAt":"2026-11-02","capturedAt":"2026-11-01","deadline":"2026-11-30","deadlinePassed":false,"reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Will at least 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by November 30, 2026?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-by-november-30","source":"Polymarket (ai-tech)","probabilityPct":4,"change24hPct":-32.5,"pricedAt":null,"capturedAt":"2026-11-01","deadline":"2026-11-30","deadlinePassed":false,"reading":"belief, not fact"}],"arc":[],"eventArc":{"name":"Strait of Hormuz","slug":"strait-of-hormuz","questionCount":33,"questions":["US charges Hormuz fees by December 31, 2026?","Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026?","Will at least 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by October 31, 2026?","Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 1, 2026?","Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?","Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?"],"mentions":8040,"firstSeen":"2026-05-24","firstSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeen":"2026-10-22","lastSeenStatus":"observed","stampNote":null}},"judgment":{"label":"Our reading","basis":"derived judgment — our reading over the layers above; ours, and labeled ours","asOf":"2026-11-02","text":"A standard-tier record keeps its layers apart and does not collapse them. Lead subject \"hormuz\" — named in this record's own subject line (\"Strait of Hormuz\"). The reporting, record, market and state-history layers below are that subject's own; none is borrowed from a neighbouring entity. Our coverage metric measures our attention; the reporting is attributed, not verified against first-party issuers; the market layer prices belief, not fact. Reading any single layer as \"the answer\" is how a machine gets this wrong — and this record's honest limit is stated in its tier: no primary-source layer exists here yet."},"consensus":{"label":"Reporting consensus","basis":"retroactive claims ledger — kernel facts scored by independent-chain agreement","pending":true,"note":"No claims ledger has been computed for this subject yet — consensus scoring is full-tier machinery.","retired":[],"fold":{"state":"pending","lists":{"kernel":{"state":"pending","total":0,"returned":0,"statement":"pending: no consensus ledger has been computed for this subject yet, so there are no kernel rows to unfold."},"frames":{"state":"pending","total":0,"returned":0,"statement":"pending: no consensus ledger has been computed for this subject yet, so there are no frames rows to unfold."},"retired":{"state":"pending","total":0,"returned":0,"statement":"pending: no consensus ledger has been computed for this subject yet, so there are no retired rows to unfold."}},"limits":{"responseBudgetBytes":262144,"pageBytes":131072,"doorEnvelopeReserveBytes":131072,"exhibitBudgetBytes":131072,"defaultPageBytes":32768,"defaultPageSize":25,"maxPageSize":100,"defaultShown":{"kernel":25,"frames":5,"retired":5},"statement":"No default response carries the whole consensus ledger. Each list (kernel, frames, retired) is folded to its count and a first page of at most kernel 25 headline rows, frames 5, retired 5, each at most 32 KiB; the rows shown are then measured so the exhibit stays within its 128 KiB share, and a topic-record response stays under 256 KiB. The other 128 KiB is reserved for the door's own fields (the maintained record, scope, pointers), which the fold does not measure (pass: door-envelope); each fold states its measured fit under layers.consensus.fold.fit. Unfold a list a page at a time: pageSize 1-100 (default 25), and a page also stops at 128 KiB of rows, returning a cursor for the rest. A page limit is a cursor, never an edge: follow nextCursor until it is null and you hold every row, in the ledger's own order."}}},"stateHistory":{"label":"State history","basis":"recorded transitions — never edited after the fact","status":"recorded","note":null,"transitions":[{"field":"coverage state","from":"steady","to":"rising","at":"2026-10-20T15:58:08.126485+00:00","heldSince":"2026-10-17T15:52:40.940749+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"rising","to":"steady","at":"2026-10-27T16:00:49.546769+00:00","heldSince":"2026-10-20T15:58:08.126485+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"steady","to":"rising","at":"2026-10-31T15:48:13.617794+00:00","heldSince":"2026-10-27T16:00:49.546769+00:00"}]}},"sectionOrder":["definition","primaryDocuments","claims","theRecord","ourAttention","marketSensor","refereeGrades","ourRead","changeLog","limits","verify","provenance"],"definition":{"key":"definition","heading":"What this record is","state":"written","whatThisIs":"The Strait of Hormuz — the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman through which roughly a fifth of the world's oil passes.","whyTracked":"We hold 982 documents from 197 outlets over 43 active days. It runs through 18 coverage domains we watch, including Africa, African Economy, AI Advancements General. 33 market questions price outcomes under the event bound to it.","coverageSince":{"date":"2026-09-18","status":"observed","text":"Our first document on this subject is dated Sep 18, 2026; the count above is everything since."},"notCovered":["Our attention, not the world's state. Every count here is a count of what our own sweep collected about hormuz.","197 outlets in our declared source universe — not the whole internet.","Market prices are the venue's number, cited and graded as an outside sensor. We publish no probability of our own on this record."],"tier":"standard","tierBasis":{"passed":["a claim carried from three or more separate origins","at least one market question bound to this record"],"failed":[],"cannotMeasure":["a first-party issuer document read from the issuer itself"],"conditions":[{"id":"first-party-read","text":"a first-party issuer document read from the issuer itself","state":"cannot-measure","reason":"PASS NOT RUN: primary-source layer - no first-party issuer row is registered for this record, so no read was attempted","passed":false},{"id":"independent-origins","text":"a claim carried from three or more separate origins","state":"clear","reason":null,"passed":true},{"id":"bound-market-question","text":"at least one market question bound to this record","state":"clear","reason":null,"passed":true}]},"stateNote":"Written definition, from the curated orientation glossary."},"claims":{"key":"claims","heading":"What separate sources agree on","state":"corroborated","source":"sb.truth-record.v1 — the maintained record is the one producer of these rows","window":{"start":"2026-10-27","end":"2026-11-02"},"counts":{"clustersTotal":1822,"corroborated":2,"published":60,"questionExcluded":25,"clustersWithAggregatorOrigin":0,"clustersWithClaimUrl":60,"originsWithReceiptUrl":374,"originsPublished":375,"recordRows":12,"singleSource":3,"reportedByTwo":7,"contested":0,"cannotCheck":0},"standingCounts":{"corroborated":2,"reported-by-2":7,"single-source":3,"contested":0,"cannot-check":0},"publishedTiers":["strong","moderate"],"dropped":11,"note":"12 claims about this subject are on the maintained record for the window Oct 27, 2026 – Nov 2, 2026: 2 carried from three or more separate origins, 7 reported by two, 3 from a single source. The count is of separate origins, not of truth: outlets relaying one named upstream count once, and many outlets echoing one official statement is still a wide echo, not a second check.","singleSourceVisible":true,"rows":[{"id":"efed3897a99c","clusterKey":"efed3897a99c","claim":"Negotiators ‘braced for worst’ over US-Iran talks to reopen strait of Hormuz","claimUrl":"https://gulfnews.com/world/mena/iran-proposes-2-day-plan-to-reopen-strait-of-hormuz-amid-us-talks-1.500732117","tier":"strong","tierLabel":"Cross-source agreement","tierMeaning":"Publishers carried this from four or more separate origins. Wire copies, republished copies, pages behind one address and publishers relaying a named upstream are collapsed into one origin first — but publishers that do not name their upstream still count separately, so this is agreement between sources, not verification of the facts. An origin whose text could not be read at all (upstream UNKNOWN) is shown but never counted toward this tier.","independentOrigins":4,"publisherCount":8,"originCount":8,"originsUnknownUpstream":4,"knownOriginCount":4,"originState":"measured","origins":["Business Upturn","dailysabah.com","france24.com","The Guardian","gulfnews.com","The New York Times","nytimes.com","theguardian.com"],"wires":[],"earliestDate":"2026-10-31","state":"corroborated","matchedOn":["document","entity"],"receiptState":"measured","receiptReason":null,"standing":"corroborated","originsSummary":"carried by 8 publishers from 8 separate origins","marketLine":null},{"id":"a29ecc1f4503","clusterKey":"a29ecc1f4503","claim":"IRGC says two tankers stopped south of Strait of Hormuz after ignoring radio warnings from Iran","claimUrl":"https://houseofsaud.com/irgc-tanker-mines-hormuz-oct29/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=irgc-tanker-mines-hormuz-oct29","tier":"strong","tierLabel":"Cross-source agreement","tierMeaning":"Publishers carried this from four or more separate origins. Wire copies, republished copies, pages behind one address and publishers relaying a named upstream are collapsed into one origin first — but publishers that do not name their upstream still count separately, so this is agreement between sources, not verification of the facts. An origin whose text could not be read at all (upstream UNKNOWN) is shown but never counted toward this tier.","independentOrigins":5,"publisherCount":6,"originCount":6,"originsUnknownUpstream":1,"knownOriginCount":5,"originState":"measured","origins":["AP","Reuters","aljazeera.com","houseofsaud.com","jpost.com","windward.ai"],"wires":["AP","Reuters"],"earliestDate":"2026-10-29","state":"corroborated","matchedOn":["document","entity"],"receiptState":"measured","receiptReason":null,"standing":"corroborated","originsSummary":"carried by 6 publishers from 6 separate origins · 2 wires (AP, Reuters)","marketLine":null},{"id":"c4a40399452f","clusterKey":"c4a40399452f","claim":"Iran offers 48-hour Hormuz reopening plan as Trump signals progress in talks","claimUrl":"https://houseofsaud.com/iran-hormuz-24-billion-precondition-oct28/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=iran-hormuz-24-billion-precondition-oct28","tier":"moderate","tierLabel":"Some cross-source agreement","tierMeaning":"Publishers carried this from two or three separate origins, under the same counting rule — agreement between sources, not verification of the facts. 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Origins whose upstream is UNKNOWN are shown but never counted toward this tier.","independentOrigins":2,"publisherCount":2,"originCount":2,"originsUnknownUpstream":0,"knownOriginCount":2,"originState":"measured","origins":["TASS","dailysabah.com"],"wires":["TASS"],"earliestDate":"2026-10-27","state":"reported-by-2","matchedOn":["entity"],"receiptState":"measured","receiptReason":null,"standing":"reported-by-2","originsSummary":"carried by 2 publishers from 2 separate origins · 1 wire (TASS)","marketLine":null},{"id":"c52946e77667","clusterKey":"c52946e77667","claim":"US Tells Ships to Avoid Unnecessary Transits Through Hormuz","claimUrl":"https://gcaptain.com/us-tells-ships-to-avoid-unnecessary-transits-through-hormuz/","tier":"moderate","tierLabel":"Some cross-source agreement","tierMeaning":"Publishers carried this from two or three separate origins, under the same counting rule — agreement between sources, not verification of the facts. 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Nothing separate has reported it.","independentOrigins":1,"publisherCount":5,"originCount":5,"originsUnknownUpstream":4,"knownOriginCount":1,"originState":"measured","origins":["The Economic Times","Moneycontrol.com","The New Indian Express","tehrantimes.com","The Times of India"],"wires":[],"earliestDate":"2026-10-31","state":"single-source","matchedOn":["entity"],"receiptState":"measured","receiptReason":null,"standing":"single-source","originsSummary":"carried by 5 publishers from 5 separate origins","marketLine":null},{"id":"02b2303c6117","clusterKey":"02b2303c6117","claim":"OPEC Holds December Output at 31 Million Barrels Amid Hormuz Closure","claimUrl":"https://houseofsaud.com/opec-plus-december-output-unchanged-hormuz/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=opec-plus-december-output-unchanged-hormuz","tier":"weak","tierLabel":"Single source","tierMeaning":"One origin, however many publishers carried it. Nothing separate has reported it.","independentOrigins":1,"publisherCount":2,"originCount":2,"originsUnknownUpstream":1,"knownOriginCount":1,"originState":"measured","origins":["houseofsaud.com","https://houseofsaud.com/"],"wires":[],"earliestDate":"2026-11-01","state":"single-source","matchedOn":["document","entity"],"receiptState":"measured","receiptReason":null,"standing":"single-source","originsSummary":"carried by 2 publishers from 2 separate origins","marketLine":null},{"id":"428c04514338","clusterKey":"428c04514338","claim":"Tanker catches fire in Hormuz after explosives attached to hull","claimUrl":"https://www.seatrade-maritime.com/security/tanker-catches-fire-in-hormuz-after-explosives-attached-to-hull","tier":"weak","tierLabel":"Single source","tierMeaning":"One origin, however many publishers carried it. Nothing separate has reported it.","independentOrigins":1,"publisherCount":2,"originCount":2,"originsUnknownUpstream":1,"knownOriginCount":1,"originState":"measured","origins":["seatrade-maritime.com","splash247.com"],"wires":[],"earliestDate":"2026-10-30","state":"single-source","matchedOn":["entity"],"receiptState":"measured","receiptReason":null,"standing":"single-source","originsSummary":"carried by 2 publishers from 2 separate origins","marketLine":null}]},"primaryDocuments":{"label":"Observed operational state","status":"absent","basis":"not present on a standard-tier record — no first-party issuer has been routed for this subject yet; nothing here is previewed to look finished","sources":[],"key":"primaryDocuments","heading":"What the issuing authorities publish","undatedCount":0,"undatedNote":null},"marketSensor":{"key":"marketSensor","heading":"What prediction markets price","state":"priced","joinPerformed":true,"eventSlug":"strait-of-hormuz","rowsFrom":"maintained-record","counts":{"eventReceipts":5,"entityCaptures":3,"served":8,"live":4,"expired":3,"undated":1},"newestPriceStamp":"2026-11-02","live":{"count":4,"priceAsOf":"2026-11-02","questions":["Will Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer be under Iranian control by November 30, 2026?","Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30?","US charges Hormuz fees by December 31, 2026?","Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026?"]},"historical":{"count":3,"questions":["Will at least 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by October 31, 2026?","Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 1, 2026?","Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?"]},"undated":{"count":1,"questions":["Will there be no Hormuz agreement?"]},"deadlineCheckedAgainst":"2026-11-03","reading":"4 of 8 market question(s) on this record are still open by their own deadline (checked against 2026-11-03; newest live price seen 2026-11-02); 3 have passed their deadline and are kept as historical capture, never current expectation; 1 state no deadline we could read and are not counted as open. Prices are a sensor we cite and grade, never a probability of ours.","venueStatusNote":null,"note":"8 market questions ride this record, newest price stamp Nov 2, 2026: 4 still open by their own deadline, 3 past it and kept as recorded, 1 with no deadline on file. A price is the venue's number, cited as one outside sensor and graded against how reality resolved; it is never a probability of ours.","rows":[{"question":"Will there be no Hormuz agreement?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/who-wins-the-senate-pending-hormuz-agreement-before-the-midterms","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":95.6,"pricedAt":"2026-11-02","capturedAt":null,"deadline":null,"deadlineBasis":"no venue end date and no date the question states could be read — UNKNOWN, never counted as still open","deadlineState":"undated","deadlinePassed":false,"venueStatus":"confirming","origin":"entity-capture","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Will Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer be under Iranian control by November 30, 2026?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/farsi-hengam-hormuz-or-kharg-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-byptptpt-20260804165426109","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":3.7,"pricedAt":"2026-11-02","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2026-11-30","deadlineBasis":"the date the question states in its own words","deadlineState":"live","deadlinePassed":false,"venueStatus":"confirming","origin":"entity-capture","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/iran-oman-hormuz-management-agreement-byptptpt-20260804222725871","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":18.5,"pricedAt":"2026-11-02","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2026-11-30","deadlineBasis":"the month and day the question states, read in the year its price was seen (2026) — the question names no year","deadlineState":"live","deadlinePassed":false,"venueStatus":"confirming","origin":"entity-capture","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Will at least 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by October 31, 2026?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-at-least-10-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-by-october-31-2026","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":9.5,"pricedAt":"2026-11-01","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2026-11-01","deadlineBasis":"the venue's own end date for the question","deadlineState":"historical","deadlinePassed":true,"venueStatus":"live","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"US charges Hormuz fees by December 31, 2026?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/us-charges-hormuz-fees-by-december-31-2026-20260713151243236","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":3.5,"pricedAt":"2026-10-31","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2027-01-01","deadlineBasis":"the venue's own end date for the question","deadlineState":"live","deadlinePassed":false,"venueStatus":"live","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-united-kingdom-send-warships-through-the-strait-of-hormuz-by-december-31-2026","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":12.5,"pricedAt":"2026-10-30","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2027-01-01","deadlineBasis":"the venue's own end date for the question","deadlineState":"live","deadlinePassed":false,"venueStatus":"live","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 1, 2026?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/shipping-targeted-in-hormuz-on-october-1-2026","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":99.5,"pricedAt":"2026-10-14","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2026-10-02","deadlineBasis":"the venue's own end date for the question","deadlineState":"historical","deadlinePassed":true,"venueStatus":"unknown","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-there-be-between-10-and-20-average-daily-transits-of-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-may-31-822","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":0.05,"pricedAt":"2026-06-02","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2026-05-31","deadlineBasis":"the venue's own end date for the question","deadlineState":"historical","deadlinePassed":true,"venueStatus":"unknown","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"}],"basis":"attributed — markets price collective belief about defined outcomes; belief, not fact, and never proof that an event occurred"},"refereeGrades":{"key":"refereeGrades","heading":"How our cited sensor has scored","state":"cannot-measure","pass":"the per-subject accuracy check","grades":[],"note":"We publish no probability of our own, so there is none of ours to score. What gets scored is the prediction-market prices we cite: each is checked against how that question actually resolved, and the checking runs across every subject at once rather than one subject at a time. Nothing specific to Strait of Hormuz has been scored, so this section can say nothing about it on its own. The scoring anyone can read is at https://api.signalbureau.ai/api/calibration-data.","where":"https://api.signalbureau.ai/api/calibration-data"},"theRecord":{"label":"The record itself","basis":["documents, outlets and the assertion mix are the event graph's corpus-wide counts for this event","active days, first and last seen are the days the attention series carries a document"],"state":"measured","reason":"","countsSource":"sb.truth-record.v1 — the maintained record is the one producer of these counts","countsBasis":"event-graph","documents":982,"outlets":197,"activeDays":43,"firstSeen":"2026-09-18","firstSeenStatus":"observed","firstSeenNote":null,"lastSeen":"2026-11-02","lastSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeenNote":null,"coverage":{"start":"2026-09-18","end":"2026-11-02","activeDays":43,"basis":["documents, outlets and the assertion mix are the event graph's corpus-wide counts for this event","active days, first and last seen are the days the attention series carries a document"]},"archive":{"scope":"cumulative entity graph since first observation — every document this subject has ever appeared in, not the maintained record's window","documents":5107,"outlets":308,"activeDays":88,"since":"2026-04-12","sinceStatus":"observed","lastSeen":"2026-11-02","lastSeenStatus":"observed","stampNote":null},"homeDomains":["energy","iran_regime","middle_east"],"asserts":null,"assertsUnit":null,"assertionCoverage":0.098,"movesWith":[{"name":"iran","together":4137,"sharedDomains":["iran_regime","middle_east"],"verbs":{"meeting-visit":19,"ceasefire-deal":4,"sanction-trade":4}},{"name":"oil","together":3508,"sharedDomains":["energy"]},{"name":"middle east","together":2205,"sharedDomains":["middle_east"]},{"name":"saudi arabia","together":1998,"sharedDomains":["middle_east"],"verbs":{"meeting-visit":2}},{"name":"red sea","together":1162,"sharedDomains":["iran_regime","middle_east"]},{"name":"israel","together":1741,"sharedDomains":["middle_east"]},{"name":"yemen","together":1619,"sharedDomains":["middle_east"]},{"name":"oil prices","together":1169,"sharedDomains":["energy"]}],"movesWithLabels":["iran","oil","middle east","saudi arabia","red sea","israel","yemen","oil prices"],"provenance":"curated","key":"theRecord","heading":"What we have collected","status":"measured","basisNote":"our own count of documents we ingested and can name — not a claim about the world, and market questions are excluded because a question is not reporting"},"ourAttention":{"label":"Coverage state","basis":"our own measurement — our attention, not the event's state","direction":"rising","baselineRelativePct":39,"reading":"Our coverage of Strait of Hormuz is 39% above its 3-week baseline. This measures our attention — how much our tracked set is writing about it — not the event itself.","trackedDays":172,"eventMentions":8040,"periods":{"state":"withheld","reason":"the event registry keeps mention counts per resolution window, not per day we observed them, so this card cannot date our attention by period; the resolution windows are served as resolutionWindows"},"key":"ourAttention","heading":"How closely we are watching","state":"measured","directionWord":"rising","glyph":"↑"},"ourRead":{"key":"ourRead","heading":"Our read","basisNote":"our analysis of this record's own dated sections; ours, and labeled ours; we serve current state, not forecasts, and never a probability of ours","asOf":"2026-11-02","firstParty":{"state":"cannot-measure","pass":"the first-party read","text":"Not yet read for Nov 2, 2026: no first-party issuer is routed for this subject yet."},"corroboratedNow":{"state":"measured","count":2,"rowCount":12,"standingCounts":{"corroborated":2,"reported-by-2":7,"single-source":3,"contested":0,"cannot-check":0},"unit":"claim","unitMeaning":"claim: one claim on the maintained record (a cluster of reports of one statement), counted once and placed by the separate origins behind it","window":{"start":"2026-10-27","end":"2026-11-02"},"elsewhere":[{"where":"ourRead.singleSource and layers.consensus.standing.ladder","unit":null,"text":"The press archive's ladder counts events over every date in the archive, not this window; no ladder is on file for this record."},{"where":"each claim row's origin count (and get_corroborated)","unit":"separate origins behind one claim","text":"A claim's own report count (\"3 reports\", \"3 separate origins\") is the origins behind that ONE claim, never a count of claims."}],"scope":"In the current window (Oct 27, 2026 – Nov 2, 2026): 2 of 12 claims corroborated by three or more separate origins.","text":"Of 12 claims about Strait of Hormuz on the record in the current window (Oct 27, 2026 – Nov 2, 2026), 2 are corroborated by three or more separate origins, 7 are reported by two separate origins and 3 rest on a single source. The strongest: “Negotiators ‘braced for worst’ over US-Iran talks to reopen strait of Hormuz” (corroborated; carried by 8 publishers from 8 separate origins, earliest Oct 31, 2026); “IRGC says two tankers stopped south of Strait of Hormuz after ignoring radio warnings from Iran” (corroborated; carried by 6 publishers from 6 separate origins · 2 wires (AP, Reuters), earliest Oct 29, 2026). These count claims in this window; the press archive's ladder, in the single-source line of this read, counts events over the whole archive."},"singleSource":{"state":"cannot-measure","count":null,"pass":"the single-source tier","text":"Not yet read for Nov 2, 2026: no press-claims ledger is on file for this subject yet."},"contradicted":{"state":"cannot-measure","reading":"cannot-measure","pass":"the comparability pass","scope":"0 comparable pairs among 12 headline clusters on this record (66 pairs judged: 65 without a shared typed actor and action class, 1 sharing them over different propositions); 11 further clear clusters beyond the 12-claim cap were not judged","rule":{"id":"claim-contradiction@1","digest":"9f52fa173ad5cc51","axes":["action-class","actor"],"overlap":0.5,"polarity":"denial markers only","negationMarkers":38},"input":{"kind":"headline-clusters","judged":12,"clearRows":23,"capped":11,"pairsJudged":66,"notComparable":{"typedAxes":65,"sameProposition":1}},"readingFrom":"record.reading","reason":"PASS FAILED: contradiction check - no polarity-comparable pair — no two claims on this record share a typed actor and action class over the same proposition, so no contradiction can be judged","comparablePairs":0,"rows":[],"asOf":"2026-11-02","text":"We could not judge whether claims on this record contradict each other: the pass that failed is the comparability pass. What this covers: 0 comparable pairs among 12 headline clusters on this record (66 pairs judged: 65 without a shared typed actor and action class, 1 sharing them over different propositions); 11 further clear clusters beyond the 12-claim cap were not judged. That is unknown, not none."},"disputed":{"state":"cannot-measure","pass":"the press-claims ledger","rule":null,"tally":null,"count":null,"text":"We could not count the reports that give a different answer for this build. Not yet read for Nov 2, 2026: no press-claims ledger is on file for this subject."},"changedSinceLastRead":{"state":"measured","text":"The ledger holds 3 recorded changes for Strait of Hormuz, the most recent on Oct 31, 2026. Each one is a change in how closely we are watching, written the moment we observed it, never backfilled and never edited after the fact. We do not yet diff against a previously published copy of this record; what stands is the ledger's own dated transitions."},"divergence":{"state":"measured","text":"Side by side, unreconciled: a venue prices “Will Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer be under Iranian control by November 30, 2026?” at 3.7% (polymarket, Nov 2, 2026), while our own record holds 2 claims corroborated by three or more separate origins (of 12 claims in all: 7 are reported by two separate origins and 3 rest on a single source). The price is the venue's number and we publish it as one; we do not blend it into ours, and we hold no probability of our own on this record."},"heldAsProvenance":{"state":"cannot-measure","rows":[],"text":"No first-party issuer is routed for this subject, so there is nothing to hold as provenance."},"inputsDropped":[{"input":"10 further claim rows (of every standing)","why":"shown on the claims section rather than repeated in the read"},{"input":"single-source reporting","why":"no press-claims ledger exists for this subject; the corroborated feed does not publish uncleared tiers"},{"input":"3 market questions past their deadline","why":"kept as historical capture, never presented as current expectation"},{"input":"1 market questions with no readable deadline","why":"not counted as open; no deadline is on file for them"}],"synthesis":null,"synthesisNote":"No synthesis is written for this record. A synthesis is our own paragraph over corroborated claims with receipts; until it is computed, the clauses above are the whole read and nothing is templated to look like one.","basis":[{"kind":"corroborated claim","text":"Negotiators ‘braced for worst’ over US-Iran talks to reopen strait of Hormuz","asOf":"2026-10-31"},{"kind":"corroborated claim","text":"IRGC says two tankers stopped south of Strait of Hormuz after ignoring radio warnings from Iran","asOf":"2026-10-29"},{"kind":"corroborated claim","text":"Iran offers 48-hour Hormuz reopening plan as Trump signals progress in talks","asOf":"2026-10-28"},{"kind":"market sensor","text":"Will Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer be under Iranian control by November 30, 2026?: 3.7% (polymarket)","asOf":"2026-11-02"}],"clauses":[{"key":"firstParty","label":"What the issuing authorities say","state":"cannot-measure","pass":"the first-party read","text":"Not yet read for Nov 2, 2026: no first-party issuer is routed for this subject yet."},{"key":"corroboratedNow","label":"How well the claims are supported","state":"measured","count":2,"rowCount":12,"standingCounts":{"corroborated":2,"reported-by-2":7,"single-source":3,"contested":0,"cannot-check":0},"unit":"claim","unitMeaning":"claim: one claim on the maintained record (a cluster of reports of one statement), counted once and placed by the separate origins behind it","window":{"start":"2026-10-27","end":"2026-11-02"},"elsewhere":[{"where":"ourRead.singleSource and layers.consensus.standing.ladder","unit":null,"text":"The press archive's ladder counts events over every date in the archive, not this window; no ladder is on file for this record."},{"where":"each claim row's origin count (and get_corroborated)","unit":"separate origins behind one claim","text":"A claim's own report count (\"3 reports\", \"3 separate origins\") is the origins behind that ONE claim, never a count of claims."}],"scope":"In the current window (Oct 27, 2026 – Nov 2, 2026): 2 of 12 claims corroborated by three or more separate origins.","text":"Of 12 claims about Strait of Hormuz on the record in the current window (Oct 27, 2026 – Nov 2, 2026), 2 are corroborated by three or more separate origins, 7 are reported by two separate origins and 3 rest on a single source. The strongest: “Negotiators ‘braced for worst’ over US-Iran talks to reopen strait of Hormuz” (corroborated; carried by 8 publishers from 8 separate origins, earliest Oct 31, 2026); “IRGC says two tankers stopped south of Strait of Hormuz after ignoring radio warnings from Iran” (corroborated; carried by 6 publishers from 6 separate origins · 2 wires (AP, Reuters), earliest Oct 29, 2026). These count claims in this window; the press archive's ladder, in the single-source line of this read, counts events over the whole archive."},{"key":"singleSource","label":"What rests on one source","state":"cannot-measure","count":null,"pass":"the single-source tier","text":"Not yet read for Nov 2, 2026: no press-claims ledger is on file for this subject yet."},{"key":"contradicted","label":"What contradicts","state":"cannot-measure","reading":"cannot-measure","pass":"the comparability pass","text":"We could not judge whether claims on this record contradict each other: the pass that failed is the comparability pass. What this covers: 0 comparable pairs among 12 headline clusters on this record (66 pairs judged: 65 without a shared typed actor and action class, 1 sharing them over different propositions); 11 further clear clusters beyond the 12-claim cap were not judged. That is unknown, not none."},{"key":"disputed","label":"Where reports give different numbers","state":"cannot-measure","pass":"the press-claims ledger","text":"We could not count the reports that give a different answer for this build. Not yet read for Nov 2, 2026: no press-claims ledger is on file for this subject."},{"key":"changedSinceLastRead","label":"What changed","state":"measured","text":"The ledger holds 3 recorded changes for Strait of Hormuz, the most recent on Oct 31, 2026. Each one is a change in how closely we are watching, written the moment we observed it, never backfilled and never edited after the fact. We do not yet diff against a previously published copy of this record; what stands is the ledger's own dated transitions."},{"key":"divergence","label":"The outside sensor, beside our record","state":"measured","text":"Side by side, unreconciled: a venue prices “Will Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer be under Iranian control by November 30, 2026?” at 3.7% (polymarket, Nov 2, 2026), while our own record holds 2 claims corroborated by three or more separate origins (of 12 claims in all: 7 are reported by two separate origins and 3 rest on a single source). The price is the venue's number and we publish it as one; we do not blend it into ours, and we hold no probability of our own on this record."},{"key":"heldAsProvenance","label":"Earlier documents on file","state":"cannot-measure","rows":[],"text":"No first-party issuer is routed for this subject, so there is nothing to hold as provenance."}],"states":{"firstParty":"cannot-measure","corroboratedNow":"measured","singleSource":"cannot-measure","contradicted":"cannot-measure","disputed":"cannot-measure","changedSinceLastRead":"measured","divergence":"measured","heldAsProvenance":"cannot-measure"}},"changeLog":{"key":"changeLog","heading":"What changed, and when","state":"recorded","started":null,"note":"The ledger holds 3 recorded changes for Strait of Hormuz, the most recent on Oct 31, 2026. Each one is a change in how closely we are watching, written the moment we observed it, never backfilled and never edited after the fact.","transitions":[{"field":"coverage state","from":"steady","to":"rising","at":"2026-10-20T15:58:08.126485+00:00","heldSince":"2026-10-17T15:52:40.940749+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"rising","to":"steady","at":"2026-10-27T16:00:49.546769+00:00","heldSince":"2026-10-20T15:58:08.126485+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"steady","to":"rising","at":"2026-10-31T15:48:13.617794+00:00","heldSince":"2026-10-27T16:00:49.546769+00:00"}]},"verify":{"key":"verify","heading":"Verify it yourself","state":"measured","rest":"curl -s https://api.signalbureau.ai/api/record/strait-of-hormuz","mcp":"curl -s https://api.signalbureau.ai/api/mcp -X POST -H 'content-type: application/json' \\\n  -d '{\"jsonrpc\":\"2.0\",\"id\":1,\"method\":\"tools/call\",\"params\":{\"name\":\"get_topic_record\",\"arguments\":{\"subject\":\"strait-of-hormuz\"}}}'","resource":null,"page":null,"note":"This page, GET /api/record/strait-of-hormuz and the get_topic_record tool are assembled by one builder, so what you fetch is what you are reading."},"limits":{"key":"limits","heading":"What this record does not tell you","state":"measured","derived":[{"section":"refereeGrades","text":"How our cited sensor has scored: we could not measure it — the pass that failed is the per-subject accuracy check. We publish no probability of our own, so there is none of ours to score. What gets scored is the prediction-market prices we cite: each is checked against how that question actually resolved, and the checking runs across every subject at once rather than one subject at a time. Nothing specific to Strait of Hormuz has b"},{"section":"ourRead.firstParty","text":"What the issuing authorities say: we could not measure it — the pass that failed is the first-party read. Not yet read for Nov 2, 2026: no first-party issuer is routed for this subject yet."},{"section":"ourRead.singleSource","text":"What rests on one source: we could not measure it — the pass that failed is the single-source tier. Not yet read for Nov 2, 2026: no press-claims ledger is on file for this subject yet."},{"section":"ourRead.contradicted","text":"What contradicts: we could not measure it — the pass that failed is the comparability pass. We could not judge whether claims on this record contradict each other: the pass that failed is the comparability pass. What this covers: 0 comparable pairs among 12 headline clusters on this record (66 pairs judged: 65 without a shared typed actor and action class, 1 sharing them over different propositions); 11 furth"},{"section":"ourRead.disputed","text":"Where reports give different numbers: we could not measure it — the pass that failed is the press-claims ledger. We could not count the reports that give a different answer for this build. Not yet read for Nov 2, 2026: no press-claims ledger is on file for this subject."},{"section":"ourRead.heldAsProvenance","text":"Earlier documents on file: we could not measure it. No first-party issuer is routed for this subject, so there is nothing to hold as provenance."}],"standing":[],"note":"6 sections on this record came back \"we could not look\". Each is named below with the pass that failed, generated from the section's own state rather than typed here."},"provenance":{"key":"provenance","heading":"Where this record comes from","state":"measured","asOf":"2026-11-02","generatedAt":"2026-11-02T23:20:37.552024+00:00","recordVersion":"sb.tr-a6e30bad","releaseId":null,"builtAt":null,"releaseState":"cannot-measure","releaseNote":"the release manifest is a deploy-time asset (/release.json), stamped on the served response, never bundled into the record at build time","slaRow":null,"slaNote":"No freshness clock is registered for this record's own inputs yet; the sections above each carry the date they speak for."},"stateScope":{"schema":"sb.state-scope.v1","state":"measured","statement":"Each row names a state this exhibit view and the embedded maintained record both describe, with the value and the as-of each side gives. Where they differ, `scope` says why. 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