{"schema":"sb.record.v1","schemaAliases":["sb.truth.v1"],"subject":"election-israel","title":"The Election: Israel record","tier":"standard","tierNote":"Standard-tier record, generated from the maintained event registry: reporting, our coverage metric, market expectation, and state history. No primary-source layer yet — first-party issuer verification is what upgrades a record to full tier, the discipline the hormuz record demonstrates.","subjectBinding":{"entity":"israel","bound":true,"basis":"named-in-subject","statement":"Lead subject \"israel\" — named in this record's own subject line (\"Election: Israel\"). The reporting, record, market and state-history layers below are that subject's own; none is borrowed from a neighbouring entity. 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A price is the venue's number, cited as one outside sensor and graded against how reality resolved; it is never a probability of ours.","rows":[{"question":"Will exactly 1 Israeli legislative election occur before a government is formed?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-exactly-1-israeli-legislative-election-occur-before-a-government-is-formed-20260728195012185","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":52.5,"pricedAt":"2026-11-02","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2028-01-01","deadlineBasis":"the venue's own end date for the question","deadlineState":"live","deadlinePassed":false,"venueStatus":"live","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Will José Israel González win the 2027 Colima Governor Election?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-jose-israel-gonzalez-win-the-2027-colima-governor-election-20260803173852342","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":0.1,"pricedAt":"2026-11-01","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2027-06-07","deadlineBasis":"the venue's own end date for the question","deadlineState":"live","deadlinePassed":false,"venueStatus":"live","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Israel Election: Ra'am Effectively Banned?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/israel-election-raam-effectively-banned","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":0.25,"pricedAt":"2026-10-02","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2026-10-27","deadlineBasis":"the venue's own end date for the question","deadlineState":"historical","deadlinePassed":true,"venueStatus":"unknown","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Israel Election: Otzma Yehudit Effectively Banned?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/israel-election-otzma-yehudit-effectively-banned","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":0.35,"pricedAt":"2026-10-02","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2026-10-27","deadlineBasis":"the venue's own end date for the question","deadlineState":"historical","deadlinePassed":true,"venueStatus":"unknown","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Israel Election: Ofer Cassif Effectively Banned?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/israel-election-ofer-cassif-effectively-banned","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":1.05,"pricedAt":"2026-10-02","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2026-10-27","deadlineBasis":"the venue's own end date for the question","deadlineState":"historical","deadlinePassed":true,"venueStatus":"unknown","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Israel Election: Joint List Effectively Banned?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/israel-election-joint-list-effectively-banned","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":0.05,"pricedAt":"2026-10-02","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2026-10-27","deadlineBasis":"the venue's own end date for the question","deadlineState":"historical","deadlinePassed":true,"venueStatus":"unknown","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"}],"basis":"attributed — markets price collective belief about defined outcomes; belief, not fact, and never proof that an event occurred"},"refereeGrades":{"key":"refereeGrades","heading":"How our cited sensor has scored","state":"cannot-measure","pass":"the per-subject accuracy check","grades":[],"note":"We publish no probability of our own, so there is none of ours to score. What gets scored is the prediction-market prices we cite: each is checked against how that question actually resolved, and the checking runs across every subject at once rather than one subject at a time. Nothing specific to Election: Israel has been scored, so this section can say nothing about it on its own. The scoring anyone can read is at https://api.signalbureau.ai/api/calibration-data.","where":"https://api.signalbureau.ai/api/calibration-data"},"theRecord":{"label":"The record itself","basis":["documents, outlets and the assertion mix are the event graph's corpus-wide counts for this event","active days is a FLOOR — the 7 distinct receipt date(s) on this record, not a full series"],"state":"measured","reason":"","countsSource":"sb.truth-record.v1 — the maintained record is the one producer of these counts","countsBasis":"event-graph","documents":278,"outlets":60,"activeDays":7,"firstSeen":"2026-05-24","firstSeenStatus":"observed","firstSeenNote":null,"lastSeen":"2026-10-20","lastSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeenNote":null,"coverage":{"start":"2026-05-24","end":"2026-10-20","activeDays":7,"basis":["documents, outlets and the assertion mix are the event graph's corpus-wide counts for this event","active days is a FLOOR — the 7 distinct receipt date(s) on this record, not a full series"]},"archive":{"scope":"cumulative entity graph since first observation — every document this subject has ever appeared in, not the maintained record's window","documents":9464,"outlets":461,"activeDays":97,"since":"2026-03-30","sinceStatus":"observed","lastSeen":"2026-11-02","lastSeenStatus":"observed","stampNote":null},"homeDomains":["middle_east"],"asserts":null,"assertsUnit":null,"assertionCoverage":0.186,"movesWith":[{"name":"iran","together":4277,"sharedDomains":["middle_east"],"verbs":{"meeting-visit":6}},{"name":"gaza","together":4049,"sharedDomains":["middle_east"],"verbs":{"ceasefire-deal":122,"meeting-visit":3}},{"name":"middle east","together":2540,"sharedDomains":["middle_east"]},{"name":"netanyahu","together":1985,"sharedDomains":["middle_east"],"verbs":{"sanction-trade":8,"meeting-visit":7}},{"name":"saudi arabia","together":1925,"sharedDomains":["middle_east"]},{"name":"un","together":1880,"sharedDomains":["middle_east"],"verbs":{"ceasefire-deal":2}},{"name":"hormuz","together":1741,"sharedDomains":["middle_east"]},{"name":"benjamin","together":1731,"sharedDomains":["middle_east"]}],"movesWithLabels":["iran","gaza","middle east","netanyahu","saudi arabia","un","hormuz","benjamin"],"provenance":"curated","key":"theRecord","heading":"What we have collected","status":"measured","basisNote":"our own count of documents we ingested and can name — not a claim about the world, and market questions are excluded because a question is not reporting"},"ourAttention":{"label":"Coverage state","basis":"our own measurement — our attention, not the event's state","direction":"insufficient_history","baselineRelativePct":null,"reading":"History still too thin for a baseline; day-over-day read.","trackedDays":null,"eventMentions":2898,"periods":{"state":"withheld","reason":"the event registry keeps mention counts per resolution window, not per day we observed them, so this card cannot date our attention by period; the resolution windows are served as resolutionWindows"},"key":"ourAttention","heading":"How closely we are watching","state":"cannot-measure","directionWord":"insufficient_history","glyph":""},"ourRead":{"key":"ourRead","heading":"Our read","basisNote":"our analysis of this record's own dated sections; ours, and labeled ours; we serve current state, not forecasts, and never a probability of ours","asOf":"2026-11-02","firstParty":{"state":"cannot-measure","pass":"the first-party read","text":"Not yet read for Nov 2, 2026: no first-party issuer is routed for this subject yet."},"corroboratedNow":{"state":"measured","count":4,"rowCount":12,"standingCounts":{"corroborated":4,"reported-by-2":3,"single-source":3,"contested":0,"cannot-check":2},"unit":"claim","unitMeaning":"claim: one claim on the maintained record (a cluster of reports of one statement), counted once and placed by the separate origins behind it","window":{"start":"2026-10-27","end":"2026-11-02"},"elsewhere":[{"where":"ourRead.singleSource and layers.consensus.standing.ladder","unit":null,"text":"The press archive's ladder counts events over every date in the archive, not this window; no ladder is on file for this record."},{"where":"each claim row's origin count (and get_corroborated)","unit":"separate origins behind one claim","text":"A claim's own report count (\"3 reports\", \"3 separate origins\") is the origins behind that ONE claim, never a count of claims."}],"scope":"In the current window (Oct 27, 2026 – Nov 2, 2026): 4 of 12 claims corroborated by three or more separate origins.","text":"Of 12 claims about Election: Israel on the record in the current window (Oct 27, 2026 – Nov 2, 2026), 4 are corroborated by three or more separate origins, 3 are reported by two separate origins, 3 rest on a single source and 2 are not yet counted. The strongest: “The Latest: As votes are counted, no clear winner emerges in Israel’s election” (corroborated; carried by 5 publishers from 5 separate origins · 1 wire (AP), earliest Oct 28, 2026); “US and UK watch as Netanyahu and rival Eisenkot face Israel election deadlock ahead of Africa’s biggest election” (corroborated; carried by 5 publishers from 5 separate origins, earliest Oct 27, 2026). These count claims in this window; the press archive's ladder, in the single-source line of this read, counts events over the whole archive."},"singleSource":{"state":"cannot-measure","count":null,"pass":"the single-source tier","text":"Not yet read for Nov 2, 2026: no press-claims ledger is on file for this subject yet."},"contradicted":{"state":"cannot-measure","reading":"cannot-measure","pass":"the comparability pass","scope":"0 comparable pairs among 12 headline clusters on this record (66 pairs judged: 38 without a shared typed actor and action class, 28 sharing them over different propositions); 1 further clear cluster beyond the 12-claim cap was not judged","rule":{"id":"claim-contradiction@1","digest":"9f52fa173ad5cc51","axes":["action-class","actor"],"overlap":0.5,"polarity":"denial markers only","negationMarkers":38},"input":{"kind":"headline-clusters","judged":12,"clearRows":13,"capped":1,"pairsJudged":66,"notComparable":{"typedAxes":38,"sameProposition":28}},"readingFrom":"record.reading","reason":"PASS FAILED: contradiction check - no polarity-comparable pair — no two claims on this record share a typed actor and action class over the same proposition, so no contradiction can be judged","comparablePairs":0,"rows":[],"asOf":"2026-11-02","text":"We could not judge whether claims on this record contradict each other: the pass that failed is the comparability pass. What this covers: 0 comparable pairs among 12 headline clusters on this record (66 pairs judged: 38 without a shared typed actor and action class, 28 sharing them over different propositions); 1 further clear cluster beyond the 12-claim cap was not judged. That is unknown, not none."},"disputed":{"state":"cannot-measure","pass":"the press-claims ledger","rule":null,"tally":null,"count":null,"text":"We could not count the reports that give a different answer for this build. Not yet read for Nov 2, 2026: no press-claims ledger is on file for this subject."},"changedSinceLastRead":{"state":"measured","text":"The ledger holds 6 recorded changes for Election: Israel, the most recent on Oct 26, 2026. Each one is a change in how closely we are watching, written the moment we observed it, never backfilled and never edited after the fact. We do not yet diff against a previously published copy of this record; what stands is the ledger's own dated transitions."},"divergence":{"state":"measured","text":"Side by side, unreconciled: a venue prices “Will exactly 1 Israeli legislative election occur before a government is formed?” at 52.5% (polymarket, Nov 2, 2026), while our own record holds 4 claims corroborated by three or more separate origins (of 12 claims in all: 3 are reported by two separate origins, 3 rest on a single source and 2 are not yet counted). The price is the venue's number and we publish it as one; we do not blend it into ours, and we hold no probability of our own on this record."},"heldAsProvenance":{"state":"cannot-measure","rows":[],"text":"No first-party issuer is routed for this subject, so there is nothing to hold as provenance."},"inputsDropped":[{"input":"10 further claim rows (of every standing)","why":"shown on the claims section rather than repeated in the read"},{"input":"single-source reporting","why":"no press-claims ledger exists for this subject; the corroborated feed does not publish uncleared tiers"},{"input":"entity priced captures","why":"our own sweep captured no priced row for this subject; the market rows here come from the event's venue receipts"},{"input":"4 market questions past their deadline","why":"kept as historical capture, never presented as current expectation"}],"synthesis":null,"synthesisNote":"No synthesis is written for this record. A synthesis is our own paragraph over corroborated claims with receipts; until it is computed, the clauses above are the whole read and nothing is templated to look like one.","basis":[{"kind":"corroborated claim","text":"The Latest: As votes are counted, no clear winner emerges in Israel’s election","asOf":"2026-10-28"},{"kind":"corroborated claim","text":"US and UK watch as Netanyahu and rival Eisenkot face Israel election deadlock ahead of Africa’s biggest election","asOf":"2026-10-27"},{"kind":"corroborated claim","text":"Israel election: Authorities dispute Netanyahu's fraud claims","asOf":"2026-10-27"},{"kind":"market sensor","text":"Will exactly 1 Israeli legislative election occur before a government is formed?: 52.5% (polymarket)","asOf":"2026-11-02"}],"clauses":[{"key":"firstParty","label":"What the issuing authorities say","state":"cannot-measure","pass":"the first-party read","text":"Not yet read for Nov 2, 2026: no first-party issuer is routed for this subject yet."},{"key":"corroboratedNow","label":"How well the claims are supported","state":"measured","count":4,"rowCount":12,"standingCounts":{"corroborated":4,"reported-by-2":3,"single-source":3,"contested":0,"cannot-check":2},"unit":"claim","unitMeaning":"claim: one claim on the maintained record (a cluster of reports of one statement), counted once and placed by the separate origins behind it","window":{"start":"2026-10-27","end":"2026-11-02"},"elsewhere":[{"where":"ourRead.singleSource and layers.consensus.standing.ladder","unit":null,"text":"The press archive's ladder counts events over every date in the archive, not this window; no ladder is on file for this record."},{"where":"each claim row's origin count (and get_corroborated)","unit":"separate origins behind one claim","text":"A claim's own report count (\"3 reports\", \"3 separate origins\") is the origins behind that ONE claim, never a count of claims."}],"scope":"In the current window (Oct 27, 2026 – Nov 2, 2026): 4 of 12 claims corroborated by three or more separate origins.","text":"Of 12 claims about Election: Israel on the record in the current window (Oct 27, 2026 – Nov 2, 2026), 4 are corroborated by three or more separate origins, 3 are reported by two separate origins, 3 rest on a single source and 2 are not yet counted. The strongest: “The Latest: As votes are counted, no clear winner emerges in Israel’s election” (corroborated; carried by 5 publishers from 5 separate origins · 1 wire (AP), earliest Oct 28, 2026); “US and UK watch as Netanyahu and rival Eisenkot face Israel election deadlock ahead of Africa’s biggest election” (corroborated; carried by 5 publishers from 5 separate origins, earliest Oct 27, 2026). These count claims in this window; the press archive's ladder, in the single-source line of this read, counts events over the whole archive."},{"key":"singleSource","label":"What rests on one source","state":"cannot-measure","count":null,"pass":"the single-source tier","text":"Not yet read for Nov 2, 2026: no press-claims ledger is on file for this subject yet."},{"key":"contradicted","label":"What contradicts","state":"cannot-measure","reading":"cannot-measure","pass":"the comparability pass","text":"We could not judge whether claims on this record contradict each other: the pass that failed is the comparability pass. What this covers: 0 comparable pairs among 12 headline clusters on this record (66 pairs judged: 38 without a shared typed actor and action class, 28 sharing them over different propositions); 1 further clear cluster beyond the 12-claim cap was not judged. That is unknown, not none."},{"key":"disputed","label":"Where reports give different numbers","state":"cannot-measure","pass":"the press-claims ledger","text":"We could not count the reports that give a different answer for this build. Not yet read for Nov 2, 2026: no press-claims ledger is on file for this subject."},{"key":"changedSinceLastRead","label":"What changed","state":"measured","text":"The ledger holds 6 recorded changes for Election: Israel, the most recent on Oct 26, 2026. Each one is a change in how closely we are watching, written the moment we observed it, never backfilled and never edited after the fact. We do not yet diff against a previously published copy of this record; what stands is the ledger's own dated transitions."},{"key":"divergence","label":"The outside sensor, beside our record","state":"measured","text":"Side by side, unreconciled: a venue prices “Will exactly 1 Israeli legislative election occur before a government is formed?” at 52.5% (polymarket, Nov 2, 2026), while our own record holds 4 claims corroborated by three or more separate origins (of 12 claims in all: 3 are reported by two separate origins, 3 rest on a single source and 2 are not yet counted). The price is the venue's number and we publish it as one; we do not blend it into ours, and we hold no probability of our own on this record."},{"key":"heldAsProvenance","label":"Earlier documents on file","state":"cannot-measure","rows":[],"text":"No first-party issuer is routed for this subject, so there is nothing to hold as provenance."}],"states":{"firstParty":"cannot-measure","corroboratedNow":"measured","singleSource":"cannot-measure","contradicted":"cannot-measure","disputed":"cannot-measure","changedSinceLastRead":"measured","divergence":"measured","heldAsProvenance":"cannot-measure"}},"changeLog":{"key":"changeLog","heading":"What changed, and when","state":"recorded","started":null,"note":"The ledger holds 6 recorded changes for Election: Israel, the most recent on Oct 26, 2026. Each one is a change in how closely we are watching, written the moment we observed it, never backfilled and never edited after the fact.","transitions":[{"field":"coverage state","from":"steady","to":"insufficient_history","at":"2026-10-22T16:03:49.154774+00:00","heldSince":"2026-10-20T15:58:08.126485+00:00"},{"field":"wire tier","from":"flagged","to":"watch","at":"2026-10-22T16:03:49.154774+00:00","heldSince":"2026-10-20T15:58:08.126485+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"insufficient_history","to":"rising","at":"2026-10-24T17:26:22.831487+00:00","heldSince":"2026-10-22T16:03:49.154774+00:00"},{"field":"wire tier","from":"watch","to":"flagged","at":"2026-10-24T17:26:22.831487+00:00","heldSince":"2026-10-22T16:03:49.154774+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"rising","to":"insufficient_history","at":"2026-10-26T19:08:57.683244+00:00","heldSince":"2026-10-24T17:26:22.831487+00:00"},{"field":"wire tier","from":"flagged","to":"watch","at":"2026-10-26T19:08:57.683244+00:00","heldSince":"2026-10-24T17:26:22.831487+00:00"}]},"verify":{"key":"verify","heading":"Verify it yourself","state":"measured","rest":"curl -s https://api.signalbureau.ai/api/record/election-israel","mcp":"curl -s https://api.signalbureau.ai/api/mcp -X POST -H 'content-type: application/json' \\\n  -d '{\"jsonrpc\":\"2.0\",\"id\":1,\"method\":\"tools/call\",\"params\":{\"name\":\"get_topic_record\",\"arguments\":{\"subject\":\"election-israel\"}}}'","resource":null,"page":null,"note":"This page, GET /api/record/election-israel and the get_topic_record tool are assembled by one builder, so what you fetch is what you are reading."},"limits":{"key":"limits","heading":"What this record does not tell you","state":"measured","derived":[{"section":"refereeGrades","text":"How our cited sensor has scored: we could not measure it — the pass that failed is the per-subject accuracy check. We publish no probability of our own, so there is none of ours to score. What gets scored is the prediction-market prices we cite: each is checked against how that question actually resolved, and the checking runs across every subject at once rather than one subject at a time. Nothing specific to Election: Israel has b"},{"section":"ourAttention","text":"How closely we are watching: we could not measure it."},{"section":"ourRead.firstParty","text":"What the issuing authorities say: we could not measure it — the pass that failed is the first-party read. Not yet read for Nov 2, 2026: no first-party issuer is routed for this subject yet."},{"section":"ourRead.singleSource","text":"What rests on one source: we could not measure it — the pass that failed is the single-source tier. Not yet read for Nov 2, 2026: no press-claims ledger is on file for this subject yet."},{"section":"ourRead.contradicted","text":"What contradicts: we could not measure it — the pass that failed is the comparability pass. We could not judge whether claims on this record contradict each other: the pass that failed is the comparability pass. What this covers: 0 comparable pairs among 12 headline clusters on this record (66 pairs judged: 38 without a shared typed actor and action class, 28 sharing them over different propositions); 1 furth"},{"section":"ourRead.disputed","text":"Where reports give different numbers: we could not measure it — the pass that failed is the press-claims ledger. We could not count the reports that give a different answer for this build. Not yet read for Nov 2, 2026: no press-claims ledger is on file for this subject."},{"section":"ourRead.heldAsProvenance","text":"Earlier documents on file: we could not measure it. No first-party issuer is routed for this subject, so there is nothing to hold as provenance."}],"standing":[],"note":"7 sections on this record came back \"we could not look\". Each is named below with the pass that failed, generated from the section's own state rather than typed here."},"provenance":{"key":"provenance","heading":"Where this record comes from","state":"measured","asOf":"2026-11-02","generatedAt":"2026-11-02T23:20:37.552024+00:00","recordVersion":"sb.tr-d84928f5","releaseId":null,"builtAt":null,"releaseState":"cannot-measure","releaseNote":"the release manifest is a deploy-time asset (/release.json), stamped on the served response, never bundled into the record at build time","slaRow":null,"slaNote":"No freshness clock is registered for this record's own inputs yet; the sections above each carry the date they speak for."},"stateScope":{"schema":"sb.state-scope.v1","state":"measured","statement":"Each row names a state this exhibit view and the embedded maintained record both describe, with the value and the as-of each side gives. Where they differ, `scope` says why. 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